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Monday, 20 January 2014

IMF set to upgrade UK growth forecasts as global economy expands

Forecast growth of 1.9% this year expected to be raised to 2.4% with IMF chief Christine Lagarde declaring 'optimism is in the air'

The International Monetary Fund is widely expected to raise its outlook for the UK on Tuesday, pushing up the country's growth forecasts by more than for any other major economy.

The Washington-based fund has been a critic of the UK's over-dependence on consumers as well as the government's Help to Buy housing market scheme. But it will bring a welcome boost to chancellor George Osborne when it updates its World Economic Outlook from last October's forecasts.

Back then it predicted UK national output would rise 1.9% in 2014 but is now expected to predict growth of 2.4%, according to a Sky News report. The IMF said it did not comment on leaks.

The fund is also expected to upgrade its outlook for the global economy, which in October it said would expand by 3.6% this year. That would reflect the cautiously optimistic tone in a New Year's speech from its managing director, Christine Lagarde, last week.

"This crisis still lingers. Yet optimism is in the air: the deep freeze is behind, and the horizon is brighter. My great hope is that 2014 will prove momentous … the year in which the seven weak years, economically speaking, slide into seven strong years," she said.

If confirmed, the substantial upgrade to the UK is likely to be seized on by Osborne as further proof the coalition's "economic plan is working" – an oft-used phrase in recent weeks as indicators have largely pointed to growth picking up.

The fund has in the past been highly critical of the coalition's austerity drive. In a damning indictment of the British chancellor's economic policies last year, the IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard warned Osborne would be "playing with fire" unless he eased the pace of budget cuts.

The IMF has also echoed other economists, including experts at the UK's own Office for Budget Responsibility, who said that the UK remains over-dependent on debt-fulled household spending to grow.

The latest crop of official data underscored those concerns, with weaker outturns for construction and manufacturing and a jump in Christmas retail sales.

Economists generally feel, however, that overall growth will pick up this year and the IMF is just the latest of a string of forecasters to raise the UK's outlook.

The business group CBI has pencilled in 2014 growth of 2.4%, the British Chambers of Commerce expects 2.7% and the OBR forecasts 2.4%.

A report from EY Item Club on Monday forecast UK economic growth would pick up to 2.7% this year from 1.9% in 2013. It too warned the recovery was not built on solid foundations, however, due largely to the pressure on household incomes.

Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club said: "It is hard to find another episode in time where employment has been rising and real wages falling for any significant period of time. The weakness of real earnings is proving to be the government's Achilles heel and could prove to be the weak spot in the recovery.

"Consumers have reduced the amount they save to fund their spending sprees. But they cannot continue to drive growth for much longer without an accompanying recovery in real wages or a rise in their debt to income ratio."

There have also been warnings that the recovery is not being felt throughout the UK, and is instead largely benefiting London and the south-east.

A study by the TUC trade unions group on Monday said the recent recovery in jobs had failed to reach the north-east, the north-west, Wales and the south-west, leaving them in the same situation or worse at providing jobs than they were 20 years ago.

The overall unemployment rate for the UK has been coming down faster than policymakers and most other forecasters had expected. Official data on Wednesday are expected to give a jobless rate of 7.3% for November, down from 7.4% the previous month.

Many economists expect the continuing drop in unemployment will prompt the Bank of England to tweak its forward guidance. At the moment, the BoE's guidance is that, barring various exceptions, it will not consider raising interest rates from their current 0.5% until a threshold of 7% unemployment is reached. The Bank may well lower that threshold for considering a hike to 6.5% unemployment, economists say.

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Sunday, 19 January 2014

City leads way in economic growth race

Optimism throughout financial services sector rose at its fastest rate since the start of the survey in 1989 in the final three months last year

An upsurge in optimism, business and jobs is turning the City into the fastest growing part of the economy it is shown in new survey data released on Monday.

Optimism throughout the financial services sector rose at its fastest rate since the start of the survey in 1989 in the final three months last year. For the fifth quarter in a row profitability was higher and employment is growing at its fastest rate since 2007.

City firms recruited another 10,000 staff in the October-December period and are forecast to add a further 15,000 to the job total in the first quarter this year. That would take employment to 1.16m, only 52,000 below the peak in the Square Mile at the end of 2008 just before the financial crisis began to bite.

The latest insight into the way recovery is feeding into the financial services sector, produced by the CBI and business advisers PwC, shows strong volume growth in all key customer categories with the exception of financial institutions and a notable pick-up in activity with industrial and commercial companies.

There are no signs of a slowdown with the volume of business predicted to grow further in the first quarter and profits set for “robust” improvement. For the first time since the financial crisis all sectors plan to increase capital spending over the next year.

Fee, commission or premium income jumped 36pc in the quarter, the fastest since June 2012. Trading income was up 20pc and while total costs rose 23pc they were almost cancelled out by volume growth.

Banking optimism is continuing to “rise briskly” with business volumes heading for strong first quarter growth. The survey suggests banks are beginning to get a grip on new regulations which are seen as “less of an obstacle” to growth and priorities shifting to retaining customers.

Building societies are feeling more optimistic about the business outlook than at any time during the past seven years after a lower than expected growth in volumes in the final quarter last year.

Private investors provided a business fillip for finance houses while optimism among life insurers jumped faster than at any time over the past decade. General insurance is enjoying a gradual recovery in confidence and although optimism among insurance brokers has risen moderately business volumes increased at their fastest in four years.

Matthew Fell, CBI director for competitive markets, feels the survey shows “things are starting to look more ‘normal’ after five years of volatility.” He is encouraged by the strength of longer term confidence indicators with marketing spend, employment and investment rising strongly.

Kevin Burrowes, head of PwC’s financial services operations, said regulation is now seen as a lesser obstacle to growth in the banking sector and although compliance remains a major concern “it is slightly less all-consuming than it was.”

UK jobless falling faster than thought, to hit target early - Reuters poll

British unemployment is falling faster than previously thought and will reach the Bank of England's 7 percent threshold for considering a rate hike well before the central bank envisages, a Reuters poll found.

The poll of 50 economists, taken this week, suggests it will fall steadily in the coming quarters and reach 7 percent early next year. A December poll had pointed to this happening in the second quarter of 2015 and a November poll even later.

"Recent sharp falls in unemployment will probably continue over the next few months. It will still take a year or so to reach 7 percent but growth in the workforce should remain strong," said Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics.

The BoE has pledged not to discuss hiking interest rates from their record low of 0.5 percent until the goal is met.

Britain's economic recovery picked up pace last year and some economists say the Bank will lower its target and hold borrowing costs low until the country's turnaround broadens out.

The bank's actions will also be closely watched by the country's politicians, who are beginning to gear up for an election in May 2015 which could hinge on the economy.

Thirteen of 35 economists in the poll expect a lowering of the threshold, probably to 6.5 percent, a similar proportion to that in a Reuters poll taken earlier this month ahead of the Bank's January policy meeting when it left policy unchanged.

"The BoE needs to review whether the 7 percent unemployment threshold is appropriate for the use of forward guidance, especially as the unemployment rate is quickly approaching 7 percent," said Azad Zangana at Schroders.

"Hitting the threshold will give the impression that the BoE will then consider raising interest rates, which we think it has no intention of doing in the near term."

Some pressure on the Bank has eased - data on Tuesday showed inflation had fallen to its 2.0 percent target for the first time in four years during December, but may nudge up again as utility and transport price rises are factored in.

With growth picking up and unemployment falling, economists are now narrowly predicting a rate hike in the second quarter of 2015, albeit one of only 25 basis points. The is the first time in nearly two years that the Reuters poll has signalled a tightening of monetary policy.

Britain's economy is still 2 percent smaller than before the financial crisis began but its growth rate is far outstripping the neighbouring euro zone, its main trading partner.

The economy is expected to grow 0.6 percent per quarter through to the middle of next year, the end of the forecast horizon and the highest forecasts to date, compared to just 0.2-0.4 percent in the common currency bloc.

Recovery in the now 18-member union remains fragile, with unemployment running at a record high and an increasing threat of deflation.

"There are still significant risks from any renewed flare-up in the euro zone crisis," said John Hawksworth, chief UK economist at PwC.

Friday, 17 January 2014

FCA launches review into RBS's small business lending

Britain's financial regulator has appointed two outside firms to review part-nationalised Royal Bank of Scotland's treatment of struggling small business customers.

RBS, which is 82-percent owned by the government, has been accused by government adviser Lawrence Tomlinson of pushing struggling small firms into its Global Restructuring Group (GRG) "turnaround" unit, so it could charge higher fees and interest, and take control of their assets.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said on Friday that consultancy Promontory Financial Group and Mazars, an accounting firm, will conduct the independent review which will be paid for by the bank.

The review will consider allegations of poor practice set out in two reports, and publish its findings in the third quarter.

"The review will also consider whether any poor practices identified are widespread and systematic. If this is the case, the second stage of the review will identify the root cause of these issues and make recommendations to address any shortcomings identified," the FCA said in a statement.

Jon Pain, head of conduct and regulatory affairs at RBS, said that in addition to the FCA's review the bank has commissioned lawfirm Clifford Chance to further investigate loans to business customers.

"Any customer with concerns about their experience with GRG can contact Clifford Chance to have their case examined," Pain said.

The FCA said that while commercial lending is not a regulated activity, if the findings reveal issues which come within the FCA's remit it will consider further regulatory measures.

Bank customers unable to calculate overdraft fees, Which? research finds

Call to force banks to make it easier to compare overdraft fees and other current account charges

Bank customers have no idea how to calculate overdraft charges, according to research by consumer body Which?. It is now calling on the government to force banks to make it easier to compare current account fees.

Which? asked a group of bank customers to work out the total cost of using an unauthorised overdraft at each of the 12 biggest banks. Despite being given access to all the banks' websites, few of those tested could correctly calculate the true cost of going overdrawn once interest and other fixed charges were added to any daily fees or penalties for unpaid transactions.

Across the group of customers tested, just 10 of the 72 calculations were made correctly. A principal inspector of taxes was right on only one of four calculations, while a retired headteacher got all his answers wrong. Only six of the 18 volunteers thought that a typical consumer would be able to compare the charges.

Which? executive director Richard Lloyd said true charging transparency would encourage more people to switch accounts.

"Consumers are faced with a myriad of complicated charges for using an unauthorised overdraft, and it's virtually impossible for people to calculate and compare the cost of running a current account. To boost competition we want the government to make banks release data about how customers use their accounts so it's easier for them to work out charges and rank providers by cost."

Which? says this data could be used to develop comparison tools that would allow consumers to rank providers according to their financial situation.

British Bankers' Association's director Eric Leenders played down the Which? findings, saying the banks already help customers to compare account charges.

"All the major banks also make information about customers' current account use available to them in a downloadable format as required by the government's initiative to encourage transparency."

He said overdraft charges have plummeted since 2008, with estimated consumer savings of up to £928m over the past five years.

Earlier this week it emerged that more than 300,000 people switched current accounts in the final three months of 2013, up 17% on a year earlier.

The Payments Council, the body responsible for payment services which published the numbers, said it marked an "encouraging start" for its seven-day account switching service, which was launched in September. However, Which? has reported that two-thirds of people who moved accounts had problems, while more than a quarter said it took eight working days or more.

Thursday, 16 January 2014

Bank of England holds cards close to chest on guidance options

The Bank of England kept investors guessing on Thursday as to whether it might be considering a change to its pledge to keep interest rates on hold as Britain's economic recovery picks up.

It also did not take the unusual step - but one which some investors had considered possible - of issuing a statement to address the speed at which Britain's unemployment rate is falling towards its threshold for considering a rate hike.

"No guidance on guidance yet," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note to clients. He said details of discussions among the BoE's policymakers on their options for changing guidance were likely to appear when minutes of this week's meeting are published on January 22.

Britain moved from being a laggard to a leader in terms of growth among the world's biggest economies last year.

Its economy is expanding by more than 3 percent in annualised terms although there are concerns the recovery could prove unsustainable, especially as wage growth remains weak.

The BoE said in August it will not think about raising rates until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Since then unemployment has come down much faster than the Bank expected, raising questions about how long it can hold off on raising rates.

But inflation has also fallen to within a whisker of its 2 percent target, reducing the pressure on the BoE.

After its two-day meeting, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates at 0.5 percent, as expected by all the economists who took part in a Reuters poll.

It also left its bond-buying programme unchanged at 375 billion pounds.

The turnaround in Britain's economy contrasts with the situation in the euro zone, its main trading partner, where the European Central Bank is expected to use a news conference on Thursday to remind investors it could ease policy further.

The pace of Britain's recovery has helped the pound to strengthen by 5 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the dollar since the middle of last year.

Sterling strengthened briefly against the dollar after the MPC's announcement of no change in policy. British government bond prices rose slightly.

RBS risk fuelling pay row as it considers how to avoid EU bonus cap

Bank which is 81% owned by taxpayers is keen to keep pace with Barclays and HSBC, which plan to hand out 'allowances'

Royal Bank of Scotland risks fuelling the row over pay as it considers how to follow rivals that have devised ways to avoid the EU bonus cap and maintain their bankers' multimillion-pound pay cheques.

The 81%-taxpayer-owned bank is keen to keep pace with rivals such as Barclays and HSBC, which are both planning to hand out new allowances, which are not classed as salary and therefore do not get included in the calculations used in the bonus cap. They have been introduced to ensure bankers do suffer any reduction in pay as a result of the bonus cap being imposed by Brussels.

Data published by the European Banking Authority last year showed that the average banker based in London received a bonus of 370% times their salary – indicating the impact that the bonus cap would have on pay.

Labour on Wednesday blew open the debate on the bonus cap, which came into effect at the beginning of this year and which George Osborne opposes. The cap limits the bonuses of the most senior bankers to 100% of their salary, unless the bank that employs them wins specific approval from its shareholders to pay bonuses of 200%. Labour called on the government to clamp down on bonuses at the loss-making, bailed-out bank and use its 81% stake to ensure that none of the RBS bankers will get 200% bonuses.

RBS admitted on Wednesday night it was consulting shareholders about pay, but insisted no decisions had yet been made.

All the major banks are expected to ask their shareholders for permission to pay bonuses twice the size of their top bankers' salaries at their upcoming annual general meetings. They are also looking at ways to pay their staff even more by making payments in addition to their salaries.

HSBC, for instance, is ready to hand out share awards to 1,000 or so of its more senior staff alongside their salaries and annual bonuses. Barclays also intends to hand its investment bankers monthly allowances to maintain their overall level of pay.

The other bailed-out bank, Lloyds Banking Group, is also expected to seek approval to pay out bonuses of twice salaries and look at ways of maintaining pay levels by using some form of additional payment. Such a move would also require approval from UK Financial Investments, the body that controls the taxpayer's stake in the bailed-out banks and still owns 33% of the shares after selling off a tranche last year.

Vince Cable, the business secretary, called on RBS to show restraint and urged it to consider the business models used by other banks that do not pay bonuses. He cited the Swedish bank Handelsbanken, which does not pay bonuses and instead uses a profit-sharing system called Oktogonen, which pays out when individuals turn 60.

"What I would say to RBS is they need to show restraint. They are changing their overall banking strategy. Instead of being a global bank aimed at investment banking they're now thinking about being a British bank aimed at British customers and British business. They should look at other models like Handelsbanken, in Sweden, which is very successful and has branches in Britain and doesn't have any bonuses at all," Cable told ITV.

Handelsbanken's UK offshoot has been unable to make Oktogonen allocations to staff for the past three years because of a dispute with HM Revenue & Customs about whether it is disguised remuneration – pay that is not being taxed.

The business secretary insisted that the government had not yet seen any proposals from RBS about its plans to tackle the bonus cap and referred to remarks by David Cameron warning about the bonus rules leading to increases in salaries to allow staff to receive the same amount of money.

"I think that's a legitimate concern that we can take into account,' Cable said.

"Most banks will be trying to get the cap lifted to 200%," said Greg Campbell, employment partner at the law firm Mishcon de Reya. Campbell said there had already been major changes to pay, when in the past bonuses across the City might have been as large as 10 times salary.