Mark Carney stands by forward guidance policy

Bank of Englang governor denies approach on future interest rates is confusing for business or consumers

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has robustly defended his forward guidance policy in parliament against critics who argue it is confusing and has done little to persuade markets that an interest rate rise can be delayed for three years while the economy mends.

Speaking to the House of Lords economics committee, Carney said businesses and consumers understood that forward guidance meantinterest rates would stay low until unemployment falls to 7%, which the central bank predicts will happen in 2016.

Carney said: "A return to growth is not the same as a return to normality", and base rates should remain at the historically low 0.5% level until the recovery was established.

He spoke as the Office for National Statistics revealed that the consumer prices measure of inflation slowed to 2.1% in November from 2.2% in October and was at its lowest since November 2009. The move closer to the Bank of England's government-set target of 2% will give policymakers more leeway to leave interest rates at their record low.

Carney told the committee Britain's return to growth was sufficient to justify resisting calls to increase the quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme, which Threadneedle Street has held steady for the last two years.

MPs have accused Carney of establishing a highly technical policy of forward guidance that relies on several caveats, or knockouts; this reliance has, they say, undermined the simplicity of the message. Forward guidance includes clauses that allow the bank to push up interest rates should it believe inflation is likely to increase sharply.

Markets have estimated that interest rates will need to rise in 2015 in response to a sustained increase in GDP and higher-than-expected inflation.

Carney said forward guidance had reassured households and businesses that credit would remain cheap until the economy was in better shape.

"Forward guidance is having an effect in the real economy. My experience, having met with more than 300 businesses around the country, is that business people understand forward guidance well. This is confirmed by the reports of our network of agents across the nation," he said.

"What matters most for households and businesses is not market expectations of interest rates, but what actually happens to bank rate now and in the future. That is because the interest rates on 70% of mortgage loans to households and more than 50% of loans to businesses are linked to bank rate."

Lord Lawson, the former Tory chancellor, said he was concerned that the central bank's QE programme to stimulate the economy would be maintained long after interest rates began to rise. He was responding to comments by Carney restating the bank's long-held policy that interest rates should increase before the sale of assets under the QE programme.

Lawson, who wants the bank to start selling the QE programme's £375bn of government bonds, said there was disquiet about the long-term effects of QE, which had artificially forced down the interest rate on government debt.

Carney said interest rates would need to rise to cool the economy ahead of a sale of government bonds.

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Osborne prepares ground for RBS and Lloyds sell-off

IMF calls on chancellor to devise a 'clear strategy' for bailed-out banks and pour more taxpayer funds into them if necessary

George Osborne is preparing to set out his plans to return bailed-outLloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland to the private sector after the International Monetary Fund called on him to devise a "clear strategy" for the two banks.

The Washington-based body, in London to present its annual health check on the UK economy, also told the chancellor that if the two banks needed more capital to bolster their financial strength he should pour in more taxpayer funds, as it would prove beneficial to the economy.

Some £65bn of taxpayer money is already locked up in shares in RBS and Lloyds, which both issued stock market announcements to insist they did not need to tap investors – particularly taxpayers – for fresh funds to plug capital shortfalls, estimated to be about £10bn.

There is mounting speculation the government is preparing to kickstart a sell-off of part of its 39% Lloyds stake

The intervention of the IMF forced Osborne to give the clearest indication yet he will outline his strategy for the two banks next month, with speculation focusing on his Mansion house speech in June.

More generally, the IMF said banks should be required to raise equity, cut dividends and show restraint on remuneration rather than cut back on lending.

Osborne said he would reveal his decision on Lloyds and RBS after the crucial report by the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, which is expected to report next month . The report may call for full nationalisation of RBS, already 81% state owned. Lloyds is 39% owned by the taxpayer.

"Having refocused their business, now is the time for a clear strategy on how to return RBS and Lloyds to the private sector in a way that protects value for the taxpayer," Osborne said.

Shares in the two banks rose after they said their long-running discussions with the new City regulator, the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), over capital requirements ended. The banks said they could sell off businesses and cut down on risks rather than raise fresh funds to fill the shortfall.

Lloyds ended nearly 2p higher at 62.96p – above the 61p level the government now sees as break-even – and RBS ended 7.4p up at 349.6p.

The IMF presented a dilemma for Osborne by making clear that value to taxpayers should be central in any sell-off. Shares in both banks are firmly below levels the City regards as break-even: 73.6p for Lloyds and 502p for RBS, levels leaving taxpayers with £17bn of losses..

"Any strategy should seek to return the banks to private hands in a way that maximises the value for taxpayers, strengthens confidence and competition in the sector, and minimises outward spillovers," the IMF said as it indicated a strategy should be outlined by the end of the year. "In this context, if a sovereign backstop is required to meet a capital shortfall, it should be provided, as this would have a high multiplier."

The IMF did not indicate when stakes should be sold off and noted that "challenges remain" as the banks had failed to sell the branches which the European Union had demanded should be disposed of in return for £65bn of state aid.

The specific capital shortfalls of Lloyds and RBS were not disclosed but are thought to make up a large part of the £25bn hole identified by the the Bank of England's financial policy committee in March.

The IMF said the new stress tests by the PRA planned for 2014, following this year's exercise for the financial policy committee, should provide more detail about the methodology, results and bank-by-bank capital plans.

Lloyds, which analysts estimate has a £3bn shortfall, said it could plug its gap by generating profits and continuing to sell non-core assets, such as problem loans – ensuring taxpayers and other investors would not need to buy new shares or other types of financial instruments.

To underline the point, Lloyds raised £500m just after the stock market closed by selling another tranche of its stake in wealth manager St James's Place. Since March, Lloyds' stake in the firm has fallen from 57% to 21%.

RBS said it could fill its capital shortfall by selling off part of its US business, Citizens, and scaling back its investment bank.

The PRA said that further announcements would come from other banks once discussions over capital had been concluded. The City is most concerned about the outcome of discussion with Co-operative Bank.

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Article source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson calls for UK to exit EU

The former chancellor of the exchequer, Lord Lawson, has called for the UK to leave the European Union.
He predicted any changes achieved by David Cameron's attempts to renegotiate the terms of the UK's relations with the EU would be "inconsequential"

But Downing Street said the prime minister remained "confident" that his strategy "will deliver results".

Mr Cameron is facing calls to bring forward a promised referendum on the UK's EU membership.

'Warm embrace'

He says he will hold a vote early in the next parliament - should the Conservatives win the next general election - but only after renegotiating the terms of the UK's relationship with the EU.

However, Lord Lawson said any such renegotiations would be "inconsequential" as "any powers ceded by the member states to the EU are ceded irrevocably".

The BBC's political editor Nick Robinson said Lord Lawson's intervention was a "big moment" in the EU debate.

 The peer - who was Margaret Thatcher's chancellor for six years - voted to stay in the European Common Market, as the EU was known in 1975, but said: "I shall be voting 'out' in 2017."

He said he "strongly" suspected there would be a "positive economic advantage to the UK in leaving the single market".

Far from hitting business hard, it would instead be a wake-up call for those who had been too content in "the warm embrace of the European single market" when the great export opportunities lay in the developing world, particularly Asia.

"Over the past decade, UK exports to the EU have risen in cash terms by some 40%. Over the same period, exports to the EU from those outside it have risen by 75%," he added.

Withdrawing from the EU would also save the City of London from a "frenzy of regulatory activism", such as the financial transactions tax that Brussels is seeking to impose.

Lord Lawson said his argument had "nothing to do with being anti-European".

"The heart of the matter is that the very nature of the European Union, and of this country's relationship with it, has fundamentally changed after the coming into being of the European monetary union and the creation of the eurozone, of which - quite rightly - we are not a part.

"Not only do our interests increasingly differ from those of the eurozone members but, while never 'at the heart of Europe' (as our political leaders have from time to time foolishly claimed), we are now becoming increasingly marginalised as we are doomed to being consistently outvoted by the eurozone bloc.

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Article source : http://www.bbc.co.uk