Bank of England governor: interest rate rise not on the agenda

Mark Carney vows to keep cost of borrowing at record low 0.5% despite policy linking a rate rise to a sharp fall in unemployment

An early increase in borrowing costs was ruled out by the governor of theBank of England as he insisted that this week's faster than expected fall in unemployment will not lead to an automatic interest rate rise that might choke off the recovery.

All but burying his "forward guidance" policy of linking an interest rate rise to a fall in the rate of unemployment to 7%, Mark Carney vowed to keep borrowing costs at their record low of 0.5% for the time being. He was speaking a day after it emerged that the unemployment rate fell to 7.1%.

Interviewed on BBC's Newsnight, Carney rejected the idea that plunging unemployment was a headache for the Bank. "If our forecast is going to be wrong it's better to be wrong in that direction," he said.

Carney also said that when the Bank decided to raise interest rates for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, the moves would be gradual.

Economists have warned that a rise to around 3% in the interest rate would lead to huge increases in mortgage costs and a wave of repossessions, as well as damage business.

Downing Street and the Treasury have been looking nervously at the politically unpredictable consequences of repeated small interest rate rises before the general election in May 2015.

Although the Treasury maintains that an interest rate rise would help savers and be a sign of an economy returning to normality, No 10 is more ambivalent.

Downing Street feels assured that Carney is a practical Bank governor driven by the state of the real economy, unlike his more academic predecessor Mervyn King.

The governor said the Bank's monetary policy committee would be looking at all aspects of the labour market and not just the unemployment rate. The MPC had used the 7% figure to enshrine the idea that joblessness would have to fall considerably before he would "even begin to think about" raising borrowing costs.

Some City analysts are expecting Carney to announce in the next few months that he will lower the threshold at which the Bank would consider raising interest rates to an unemployment level of 6.5%.

The governor said that would be decided by the MPC but added that it was "really about overall conditions in the whole labour market", where productivity remains poor and many people working part-time still want full-time jobs.

Carney said the economy was "coming off a low base" and output was still below the levels when the economy dropped into its deepest recession since the second world war.

"The worst of the crisis is behind us but the financial system is not functioning as well as it could," he said. "Uncertainty among households and businesses is still preventing investment."

No 10 remains convinced that a year of growth, so long as it does not tip into over-heating, will ensure Labour's stubborn opinion poll lead is worn down into 2015.

Although David Cameron urged voters to be patient on living standards, his aides believe average incomes, once tax changes are taken into account, are already starting to rise above prices.

In a speech to business people in Davos, Switzerland, the prime minister will try to present his most optimistic long-term vision of the UK economy for many years , saying Britain can become "the re-shore nation" with businesses bringing production back to the UK, encouraged by cheaper energy costs and the lure of shorter customer chains.

Cameron will hold out the example of the United States where collapsing energy costs owing to fracking have led businesses to relocate back to the US.

He will say: "There is no doubt that when it comes to reshoring in the US, one of the most important factors has been the development of shale gas which is flooring US energy prices with billions of dollars of energy cost savings predicted over the next decade.

"I believe these trends have the ability to be a fresh driver of growth in Europe too. I want Britain to seize these opportunities. I think there is a chance for Britain to become the Reshore Nation."

Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said: "The Tory-led government came to office promising an export-led recovery but the UK's trade deficit is growing. Any help for manufacturers is welcome after three damaging years of flatlining and in a month where factory orders have fallen back.

"But after so many government schemes have failed to deliver for business, manufacturers will want to see what this one offers in practice."

Cameron's hopes for a boom built on fracking are not shared by the energy department, which is much more ambivalent about the ability of Britain – for geological, political and environmental reasons – to match the US fracking boom, at least not for more than a decade.

The prime minister will try to rebut internal critics tired of the Tory party's negativity by striking a more optimistic note. He will say: "For years the west has been written off. People say we are facing some sort of inevitable decline. They say we can't make anything any more.

"Whether it's the shift from manufacturing to services or the transfer from manual jobs to machines, the end point is the same dystopian vision – the east wins while the west loses, and the workers lose while the machines win. I don't believe it has to be this way. If we make the right decisions, we may also see more of what has been a small but discernible trend where some jobs that were once offshored are coming back from east to west."

To back the rhetoric, UK Trade & Investment will join forces with the Manufacturing Advisory Service to launch Reshore UK, a service to help companies bring production back to Britain.

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Bank of England governor reiterates pledge on low interest rates

Mark Carney leaves door open for fresh stimulus measures if Britain's 'fledgling recovery' is threatened - but sterling rises against the dollar and 10-year gilts rise after the speech

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, sought to convince a sceptical City that borrowing costs will remain on hold for the next three years on Wednesday, as he warned that Britain needs a prolonged period of low interest rates to make up the ground lost during the recession.

In his first big speech since taking charge in July, Carney left the door open for fresh stimulus measures if adverse market reaction to the Bank's new forward guidance regime threatened the UK's "fledgling recovery".

The governor said he was trying to provide certainty to businesses and households that the recent signs of growth would not be followed swiftly by a tightening of policy.

"We have a recovery that's just beginning. It's a very long way back. We are lagging just about everybody else in the advanced world. There's a lot of spare capacity", Carney said in a press conference following his speech to business leaders in Nottingham.

The City was left unimpressed by the renewed commitment to leave interest rates at their record low of 0.5% and to maintain the level of assets purchased under the Bank's quantitative easing programme at £375bn. Sterling jumped by half a cent against the dollar after he spoke, while yields on 10 year gilts rose from 2.73% before his speech, to 2.8% afterwards – the opposite direction to the move Carney might have hoped for.

Traders believe that the pick-up in economic activity will strengthen over the coming months and that the unemployment rate will fall to 7% – the threshold at which Carney might raise interest rates - well before the 2016 date pencilled in by the Bank.

The governor's announcement on Wednesday that banks would be able to reduce their holdings of liquid assets by £90bn, thereby making it easier for them to lend, strengthened the belief that Threadneedle Street was being too pessimistic about growth prospects.

But Carney insisted that the 7% jobless rate was a "staging post", which would not necessarily lead to borrowing costs going up but only require the nine-strong monetary policy committee to re-think its approach. The jobless rate stands at 7.8% currently.

He said the Bank's task was "to secure the fledgling recovery, to allow it to develop into a period of sustained and robust growth. We aim to get there in part by reducing the uncertainty that has held back growth."

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney
Since the MPC adopted its new policy of forward guidance in July, investors have brought forward their expectations of a rate rise, amid strong economic data for the UK, and fears about the knock-on effects if the US Federal Reserve phases out its own $85bn(£55bn)-a-month programme of QE.

But the new governor insisted the Bank will not be swayed by decisions made thousands of miles away in Washington.

"While much has been made of the special relationship between the US and UK, it is not so special that the possibility of a reduction in the pace of additional stimulus in the US warrants a current reduction in the degree of monetary stimulus in the UK," he said.

City analysts said, however, that the speech lacked details of how exactly Carney and his colleagues will respond if the current market reaction persists.

"If market rates are at 'unwarranted' levels and rise further, putting recovery in the real economy at risk, what would the BoE do?", said Ross Walker, UK economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

Simon Wells, of HSBC, said: "There was little attempt to talk the market down with threats of imminent easing. Even if Mr Carney is personally irritated or concerned by the rise in market rates, he probably knows that there is little chance of garnering a majority on the MPC for policy loosening at this stage".

Carney did explain how he plans to use the Bank's new powers to supervise Britain's banks, in order to underpin recovery. He confirmed that once individual banks have increased their capital levels to the new minimum level of 7% of their risk-weighted assets, the Prudential Regulatory Authority will relax liquidity rules, allowing them to hold less of their capital in the form of the most liquid instruments such as government bonds. In total, the Bank says the move could free up £90bn for new lending.

The governor also addressed fears that the government's various schemes to rekindle the housing market, coupled with the Bank's promise to keep rates low, risked stoking a new speculative bubble. He said there was little evidence of a boom, with mortgage approvals running at just over half their pre-crisis level, and debt servicing costs low.

But he added that the Bank was "acutely aware of the risk of unsustainable credit and house price growth and will be monitoring it closely".

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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Bank experts back Mark Carney on not expanding QE as recovery takes hold

Policymakers seeking alternative ways to encourage growth after unanimous vote to keep QE programme at £375bn

Bank of England policymakers swung behind Mark Carney, the new governor, and voted unanimously against extending quantitative easing at this month's monetary policy committee meeting, amid signs that economic recovery is becoming "more firmly established".

David Miles and Paul Fisher, the two MPC members who had repeatedly backed Carney's predecessor Sir Mervyn King's calls for an extension of the deflation-busting policy, decided instead to switch their votes and support Carney's plan of leaving the size of the QE programme unchanged at £375bn.

The Bank's apparent retreat from QE under Carney's leadership came as Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, used an appearance before the House of Representatives to reassure financial markets that his own plans to scale down monetary stimulus were not "on a preset course", and would depend on the health of the economy.

Bernanke sparked a sharp sell-off in financial markets and a spike in bond yields in May when he suggested that the Fed would start to "taper" its $85bn a month in bond purchases as the US recovery gathers pace. But in yesterday's hearing the chairman said: "Markets are beginning to understand our message and the volatility has obviously moderated."

The minutes of the Bank of England's July MPC meeting, published on Wednesday, suggested that with the recovery still fragile, rather than halting stimulus, it was examining the idea of using a different approach to try to kick-start growth.

By August, when the chancellor has asked the Bank to decide on whether it wants to alter its policymaking remit, the MPC aims to establish "the quantum of additional stimulus required and the form it should take".

That suggests that Miles and Fisher may simply have decided to wait for next month's meeting before pushing for a fresh round of QE – or backing an alternative, such as a public promise to keep rates low until the economy meets specific targets, an approach known as "forward guidance". , which the Canadian governor is known to favour.

"An expansion of the asset purchase programme remained one means of injecting stimulus, but the committee would be investigating other options during the month, and it was therefore sensible not to initiate an expansion at this meeting," the minutes said.

Simon Wells, UK economist at HSBC, said: "We expected unanimity next month, when the MPC assesses the merits of forward guidance, but Mark Carney has already got it."

The MPC made a first foray into forward guidance at its meeting a fortnight ago, taking the unusual step of issuing a statement to financial markets warning them that interest rates were unlikely to rise.

When Carney was governor of the Canadian central bank, he pledged to keep interest rates low for 12 months, helping to calm fears in financial markets that borrowing costs were about to rise.

The minutes show that MPC members were concerned by the "surprising" rise in UK government bond yields that followed Bernanke's statement in May. In April markets had not been expecting UK interest rates to go up until late 2016; by the time the MPC met, that had been brought forward to mid-2015.

"UK developments, while broadly positive, had not been enough to warrant such an upward move in the near-term path of bank rate," the minutes said.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney plans to leave the size of the QE programme unchanged at £375bnPersistently weak real income growth – with high inflation more than outweighing paltry pay deals – was highlighted as a risk to the recovery by MPC members: "Real income growth had remained weak … and it was unlikely that consumption growth could continue at its current rate without some rise in real incomes."

However, the MPC said, "developments in the domestic economy had generally been positive", and broadly in line with the moderately upbeat picture presented by King at his final inflation report press briefing. For "most members", therefore, "the onus on policy at this juncture was to reinforce the recovery by ensuring that stimulus was not withdrawn prematurely", – subject to keeping inflation on track to hit the government's 2% target.

IMF boost for Osborne

George Osborne won a propaganda victory on Wednesday night as the IMF's powerful directors rejected its own economists' recommendations that the UK should slow the pace of spending cuts to boost recovery.

When the IMF announced the initial findings of its annual check-up of the UK economy in May, it caused a political storm by urging the chancellor to bring forward £10bn of infrastructure spending to avoid austerity becoming too much of a drag on growth.

But at a meeting on Monday, a big majority of the IMF's 24 directors – delegates from its member countries – spoke out against that proposal.

A statement released on Wednesday with the IMF's full findings on the UK, known as an Article IV, said: "Most directors underscored the importance of keeping fiscal consolidation on track to preserve credibility, not least in light of the persistent weakness of the fiscal position." However, Krishna Srinivasan, the mission chief for the IMF's UK assessment, said staff stood by their recommendations, despite the board's scepticism.

A Treasury spokesman said: "We thought they were wrong then, we still think they're wrong, and now it turns out most of the board agree with us."

But the IMF's report insisted that, "the economy remains a long way from a strong and sustainable recovery".

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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UK construction sector grows for second consecutive month

Markit/CIPS construction PMI hits highest level since May 2012, fuelling hopes for faster economic growth

The UK's construction sector grew for a second month in June, boosted by a rise in house building and supporting expectations that economic growth accelerated in the second quarter.

Growth in output and new orders pushed the Markit/CIPS construction purchasing managers' index (PMI) to 51 from 50.8 in May, where anything above 50 indicates expansion. It was the highest level since May 2012.

Companies reported rising levels of client demand and larger volumes of new work.

Economists said the positive data raised the chances of stronger second-quarter growth than the 0.3% in the first three months of the year.

The positive news will be welcomed by the Bank of England's new governor, Mark Carney, who will oversee his first monetary policy committee decision on Thursday.

"June's construction data is one of the final pieces in the puzzle when it comes to survey evidence for second-quarter UK economic performance, and the sector's upturn adds to the upbeat news flow ahead of Mark Carney's first policy meeting at the Bank of England later this week," said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit.

Construction sector employment rose for the first time since FebruaryHousing construction grew at the strongest rate in June according to the PMI, helped by the government's incentive schemes, although growth slowed to 51.5 from 54.4 on the index.

Commercial and civil engineering activity hit 50.1 and 50 respectively, improving after several months of contraction.

Employment in the sector rose for the first time since February and at the fastest rate since September, driven by the rising levels of new work and an improved outlook.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said that although the positive survey reinforced the likelihood that the MPC will not announce additional stimulus this week, more quantitative easing was possible in August.

"This reflects our belief that Mark Carney is likely to be keen to build up escape velocity from extended economic weakness," he said.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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