Bank of England could raise interest rates next spring, says MPC member

MPC member Ian McCafferty says market expectations rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 are 'not unreasonable'

A Bank of England policymaker has reinforced expectations that the first rise in interest rates will come as soon as next spring, in remarks that pushed up the pound.

Ian McCafferty, a member of the monetary policy committee, said that market expectations that the Bank of England will start to raise rates in the second quarter of 2015 are "not unreasonable". He told news agency Reuters in an interview that wage deals in coming months would be "quite critical" as policymakers watch for inflation risks.

Under governor Mark Carney, earlier this month the Bank overhauled its forward guidance policy on when rates would rise from their record low of 0.5%. At the time it said a view in markets that rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 was consistent with its goal of keeping inflation close to the government-set 2% target. McCafferty told Reuters: "In that sense, you'd have to say that that market curve is not unreasonable.

"The exact timing of course is going to depend on events that have yet to unfold in terms of how the recovery proceeds over the course of the next six to 12 months or so."

Following his remarks being published, the pound rose to session highs against the dollar and euro.

McCafferty, a former chief economic adviser to business group CBI, said he was watching for pressures on inflation from pay deals negotiated in coming months. After years above its target inflation has now fallen below 2%, to stand at 1.9% in January.

"I suppose my view would be if anything, the risk I am watching for, because I think it fits with our mandate, is were we to see inflation risks or inflation behaviour start to develop," he said. "At the moment, that seems to be well under control.

"If we did see some inflationary pressure – more than we currently expect in our central case – that would if anything, I suspect, lead the committee to consider slightly earlier rate rises."

The policymaker said another factor to watch was the strength of the pound, which last week strengthened to a four-year high against the dollar.

"Were it to continue to rise, I would get more worried," McCafferty said, and indicated further strengthening could delay a rate hike.

"It's clearly a consideration in terms of total monetary conditions in the economy so we would need to take it into account when determining what the appropriate monetary stance would be going forward," he said.

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UK unemployment rate ticks up, underlines steady stance on rates

Britain's unemployment rate unexpectedly edged up in the three months to December to mark a first rise in almost a year, underlining a message from the Bank of England that it is in no rush to hike borrowing costs.
The jobless rate edged up to 7.2 percent in the three months to December compared with 7.1 percent in November, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was the first rise since the three months to February 2013 and was higher than the unchanged reading forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

But the number of claimants of jobless benefits - a narrower category than those who are deemed unemployed - fell for the 15th consecutive month, while wage growth accelerated.

That suggested a mixed picture for the labour market, adding weight to last week's shift of emphasis by the central bank to a broader range of measures of slack in the economy when considering changes to monetary policy.

The BoE was forced last Wednesday to overhaul its previous forward guidance policy that hinged on a 7.0 percent unemployment rate threshold, a level almost reached in the three months to November.

It also said it was in no rush to hike rates.

The minutes from the BoE's last meeting, also released this Wednesday, showed policymakers had no disagreements about major changes to the central bank's forward guidance policy.

"(With) weaker inflation below target, the unemployment rate tantalisingly moving away from their threshold, it helps to take the pressure off the BoE for early rate increases," said Brian Hilliard, economist at Societe Generale.

Sterling fell to a session low against the dollar and the euro while gilt futures extended gains after the data.

The ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell by 27,600 in January, compared with a forecast for a decline of 20,000 in a Reuters poll.

Wage growth has lagged inflation over the last years, and the squeeze on incomes is a key battleground of next year's general election.

Average weekly earnings rose by 1.1 percent in the three months to December 2013 compared with the same period in 2012 - its highest since July last year, although still below the inflation rate.

Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings rose by 1.0 percent by the same comparison.

The annual inflation rate was 1.9 percent in January - below the BoE's target for the first time in over four years.

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UK inflation falls below Bank of England's 2% target

Rate dropped to 1.9% in January, the first time it has dipped below target in more than four years

Inflation fell below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in more than four years in January, brightening the outlook for Britain's squeezed consumers.

The annual rate of inflation dipped to 1.9% last month from 2% in December, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven lower by prices of furniture and other household goods, alcohol and tobacco, DVDs and tourist attraction entry costs.

It was the first time since November 2009 that inflation has fallen below target. Economists said the figures reflected particularly aggressive discounting this year as retailers competed in the January sales.

Inflation has been falling steadily in recent months after reaching a peak of 5.2% in September 2011. It finally returned to the 2% target for the first time in four years in December.

Economists said inflation was likely to fall further in the coming months, boosting the chance that wage growth will outpace inflation in 2014 for the first time in years, easing the pressure on household budgets.

Wage growth was just 0.9% in the latest available data for the three months to November, still less than half the inflation rate.

"There is a good chance that CPI inflation will fall to as low as 1% by the end of this year and remain subdued thereafter," said Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Capital Economics.

"This should enable real earnings to rise for the first year since 2007 and allow the [Bank's] monetary policy committee to keep interest rates on hold until well into next year."

Despite a backdrop of falling inflation and economic growth, the Bank of England made it clear last week it is in no hurry to raise interest rates – which have been at an all-time low of 0.5% since March 2009 – suggesting there would be no rise until after the general election next year.

The Bank's governor, Mark Carney, said its policymakers would not take risks with this recovery, which is as yet "neither balanced nor sustainable".

The retail prices index, historically used to calculate wage rises, rose to 2.8% in January from 2.7% in December, driven higher by insurance, air fares and fuel prices.

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House price boom brings new wave of sellers into the market

Property website Rightmove says shortage of homes and buying frenzy have driven asking prices to record level

Surging house prices have prompted a wave of sellers to put their homes on the market, according to Britain's biggest property website, Rightmove, but it added that near-frenzied buying activity is sending asking prices to record levels.

The average asking price on the site jumped by £8,103 in January, equal to £261 a day, with the typical property now costing £251,964. Rightmove also said it had its 10 busiest days ever in January, with house hunters looking at 50m property pages a day for the first time, or about 500 a second.

The number of potential buyers sending emails to inquire about properties was also up around one-fifth compared with January last year and there was "firm evidence that interest is serious and being followed up", it said.

The booming market has provoked a big increase in the number of sellers, with 18% more properties being listed than a year ago. But Rightmove said it is yet to affect the supply shortage, as the number of homes being snapped up and removed from the site has risen in tandem.

Estate agents said they were also seeing more sellers come to the market. Haart, which is part of the largest estate agency group in the UK, said the number of properties advertised in its windows had increased by 10.6% over the past year. Its chief executive, Paul Smith, said: "It's good news that stock levels are increasing. However, new buyer registrations are up 41.2% annually so the market is still out of kilter."

The conventional approach to buying a home - where someone finds a house they like, then puts theirs up for sale – is breaking down in many local markets, where estate agents are not interested in prospective buyers unless they have sold already and can proceed immediately.

"Especially in the south, agents report that buyers with a property yet to sell are losing out to buyers able to proceed with speed," said Miles Shipside, a director and housing market analyst for Rightmove.

But bubble-like conditions in some parts of the country are making first-time buyers stretch themselves too far, warned the government-backed Money Advice Service. It researched 1,000 first-timers who had bought over the past two years, and found that one in five wished they had bought somewhere cheaper.

More than half admitted that the running cost of their first home was also more than expected, prompting the service to warn buyers: "You can afford your mortgage, but can you afford your home?"

Affordability is most stretched in London and the south-east. Haart said that over the past year, the average property it sold in London went up by 18.4% to £448,800, a rise of £69,784 over the year, double the average salary of a Londoner.

A Guardian/ICM poll last week found a growing exhaustion with rising house prices among the general population. Only 14% of people want house prices to continue to rise, while 63% would prefer they remain stable and 20% want prices to fall.

When asked to name the biggest problem in housing, 29% said it was buyers priced out of the market, a quarter said it was the lack of council housing, and 15% said it was excessive private rents.

But despite their despair over prices, most households expect them to continue to rise this year. A sentiment index produced by the upmarket agents Knight Frank found that households in every region of the UK perceive that the value of their home will rise over the next 12 months.

Expectations that rising interest rates may puncture a potential property bubble were dashed last week by the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney. He said he was comfortable with the City's view that interest rates would not rise before the spring of 2015 and then rise gently to 2% by 2017.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest that higher house prices are also provoking a building boom. Figures released late last week revealed that in 2013 there was 1.3% annual growth in construction output, but it was "almost solely" attributed to house building, which jumped by 10.4% (£2.1bn) year on year.

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Bank of England launches inquiry into forex manipulation claims

Senior currency trader says Bank officials condoned information sharing between traders under investigation

The Bank of England has launched an internal inquiry into allegations that its officials endorsed sharing of information between traders in the foreign exchange market, the central bank's deputy governor told MPs.

The inquiry will examine claims that at a meeting between Bank officials and senior currency traders last April the officials said it was permissible for traders in different banks to share information about clients' positions ahead of the setting of a benchmark rate in the foreign exchange market.

Andrew Bailey told the Treasury select committee: "The governors of the Bank have taken the claims about the meeting with the Bank's officials extremely seriously since we first heard about these allegations. Just so you know, we first heard about them in October.

"The governors immediately initiated a full review into it led by the Bank of England's legal counsel but also supported by external legal counsel and also in close collaboration with the FCA [financial conduct authority]."

Bailey, who is in charge of supervising financial firms, said the Bank had found no evidence that officials had endorsed sharing of information but added: "We do not regard that review as over."

Bloomberg News reported last week that a senior currency trader had informed the financial conduct authority that Bank staff at the April meeting had condoned information sharing. Alleged collusion in setting benchmark rates in the foreign exchange market is at the centre of allegations of market manipulation that could be as big as the Libor scandal.

Bailey said the Bank's inquiry had not yet seen the anonymous trader's notes from the meeting.

Bailey agreed with committee member Pat McFadden that if true the allegations would be "extremely damaging" to the Bank's reputation.

"I agree with you on that. That is why we have set up this investigation and this process," Bailey said. "The governors take the whole question of the reputation and integrity of the central bank extremely seriously. It's the most important thing we have."

The benchmark in question is used to price a wide variety of financial products and is the subject of regulators' attention amid allegations that traders at rival banks were sharing information about their orders from clients to manipulate the price.

A record of the April meeting released by the Bank showed it was chaired by Martin Mallett, its chief currency dealer, and included an entry entitled "extra item". The record says: "Processes around fixes. There was a brief discussion on extra levels of compliance that many bank trading desks were subject to when managing client risks around the main set-piece benchmark fixings."

Martin Wheatley, chief executive of the FCA, which is in charge of stamping out market abuse, told MPs last week that the allegations were "every bit as bad" as those surrounding Libor. Banks have been fined billions of pounds over the Libor scandal.

The meeting was between senior traders at investment banks and a subcommittee of the Bank's foreign exchange standing committee. Bloomberg was told that during a 15-minute conversation about currency benchmarks traders said they used chat rooms to match buyers and sellers ahead of the one-minute period when rates were fixed to avoid trading at a volatile time.

The officials are alleged to have said the practice might benefit markets because it made them more stable.

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Barclays hikes bonuses amid warning on jobs and fall in profits

Bonuses for investment bankers rise to £1.6bn despite fall in profits and warning of up to 12,000 job cuts this year

Barclays stoked the row over City pay on Tuesday by announcing a 32% fall in profits but a rise of 10% in the bonus pool for its 140,000 staff around the world.

Antony Jenkins, promoted to run Barclays in the wake of the £290m fine for rigging Libor, defended the decision to increase bonus payouts as he warned that between 10,000 to 12,000 jobs would be cut this year as he races to cut costs. Some 820 senior roles are to go along with 7,000 jobs in the UK.

In a move that sparked the fury of the TUC, which accused the bank of "sticking two fingers up to hard-pressed families across Britain", the bank announced it was paying bonuses of £2.4bn – up from £2.2bn a year ago – across the bank. Within that, the investment bankers enjoyed bonuses of £1.6bn compared with £1.4bn a year ago, even though the investment banking side suffered a loss in the fourth quarter and its annual profits tumbled 37%. The bank as a whole saw its profits fall to £5.2bn from £7bn.

Labour seized upon the numbers to call for a reintroduction of the bonus tax which Cathy Jamieson, shadow financial secretary to the Treasury, said "could fund a paid job for every young person out of work for 12 months or more, which they would have to take up or lose benefits".

The profit figures, announced 24 hours earlier than scheduled, on Monday, because of a fears of a leak, showed that on a statutory basis – including accounting quirks and other one-off items – the profits rose to £2.9bn. This was also the year that the bank tapped shareholders for £5.8bn.

Jenkins admitted that he only discovered the theft of confidential customer files – 2,000 names, addresses, phone numbers, passport numbers and details of personal finances – which is now the subject of regulatory scrutiny, after being informed of the loss by the Mail of Sunday. Only 300 of the 2,000 individuals affected have been contacted by the bank.

Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the TUC, said: "Today Barclays has stuck two fingers up to hard-pressed families across Britain by announcing another multi-billion pound bonus pool". In reference to the EU's cap on bonuses to 100% of salary, O'Grady added: "But rather than tackle the damaging City bonus culture, the Chancellor has been to Brussels to defend their greed".

Jenkin justified the hike in bonuses – despite his pledge to show pay restraint and waiving his own £2.75m bonus – by insisting the bank needed to pay staff in a globally competitive environment. He also insisted the bank was acting within the "spirit and letter" of the law by paying monthly role-based allowanced to key staff who might otherwise take pay cuts as a result of the bonus cap.

"We employ people from Singapore to San Francisco. We compete in global markets for talent. If we are to act in the best interests of our shareholders, we have to make sure we have the best people in the firm," Jenkins said.

"At Barclays we believe in paying for performance and paying competitively. Ensuring that we have the right people in the right roles serving our customers and clients effectively in a highly competitive global environment is vital to our ability to generate sustainable shareholder returns," he said.

"After careful consideration, we determined that an increase of £210m over the prior year in the incentive pool was required in 2013 in order to build our franchise in the long term interests of shareholders."

Even though the bank tapped shareholders for £5.8bn of fresh funds last year under instruction from the Bank of England, the average bonus per staff member was £17,000 up from £15,600 while the average investment banker received £60,100 up from £54,500.

Jenkins, who has set out to make Barclays the "go to" bank, has forced every staff member to embark on ethics training and set out eight new goals against staff will be measured in the future. One of his targets is increasing the number of senior women from 21% to 26% by 2018.

Jenkins regularly describes the changes that technology will impose on the banking industry - he is thought to believe that as many as 40,000 roles could eventually go from the 140,000 workforce - and on Tuesday described a "one in a hundred year transformation" of the industry. Half of the 7,000 of the jobs being axed in the UK have already been announced and branches are eventually expected to close.

He insisted that bonuses were down from 2010 by 32%.

The bank is fighting a £50m fine from the Financial Conduct Authority for discloses it make during the time of a crucial funding raising in 2008 but said this process had now been stayed while the Serious Fraud Office investigated.

The dividend for the year is 6.5p, the same as last year. The shares were down 2% at 269p in early trading.

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UK economy to grow by 2.5% this year, says NIESR

The think tank said the UK's economic recovery had become "entrenched".

The estimates are broadly in line with those of other forecasters, including the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility.

NIESR also said it expected the unemployment rate to fall below 7% before the end of the year.

Jobless figures released last month showed that the unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in the three months to November.

Last year, the Bank of England said it would consider raising interest rates from their current historic lows if the unemployment rate fell below the 7% threshold, though it has since played down expectations of rate rises in the near future.

NIESR's forecast follows similar raised UK growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which are also increasingly optimistic about the UK's economic prospects.

'Remarkable performance'

Falling unemployment and rising house prices have helped to encourage consumers to spend more, fuelling the recovery.

More sluggish sectors of the economy such as construction are also now showing signs of strengthening.

But concerns remain - particularly levels of business investment, which remain low, and stagnant wage growth which means prices are continuing to rise faster than many people's salaries.

"The UK's economic recovery is entrenched," the NIESR said in a statement. "Above trend growth returned in 2013, while the remarkable performance of the labour market persists."

"We expect consumer spending to remain the key driver of recovery in 2014 and 2015, supported by continued buoyancy in the housing market."

It added that the rapid fall in unemployment seen in recent months had "raised questions over the credibility" of the Bank of England's forward guidance, which saw 7% unemployment as an important threshold.

NIESR said it was forecasting a rise in interest rates as early as the second quarter of 2015, though this is expected to be a year after the 7% threshold is breached.

The Bank of England opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% again on Thursday. The rate has been at the historic low since March 2009.

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UK commercial property market strengthening, says British Land

Britain's second-biggest property company says there is more interest in its London office space

British Land said the UK commercial property market was strengthening with increased investment spreading from London into regional markets.

In a trading update, Britain's second-biggest property company said there was more interest in its London office space and that retailers were looking to open new stores.

Chief executive Chris Grigg said: "We have had a good third quarter and the business is performing well. Overall, the UK property market had a strong quarter with London strengthening further and domestic and international investment spreading out into the regional markets.

"From an occupational perspective, we saw increased interest in our office space in London, notably in the City. In retail, the economic recovery is having a positive impact on confidence and we continued to benefit from retailers looking to take space in the best quality locations."

The company said it had let the 30th floor of the Leadenhall Building, popularly known as the Cheesegrater, to upmarket serviced office business Servcorp. The deal is the first single-floor letting in the City block, of which British Land owns a half share.

British Land's strong trading is further evidence that the UK's once-troubled commercial property sector is recovering along with the economy. The CBI business lobby has reported economic output rising at its fastest since the early stages of the financial crisis in autumn 2007.

In the three months to the end of December, like-for-like occupancy rose 0.3 percentage points to 97.1% and the company let or renewed 386,000 sq ft of retail space. Sales totalling £405m included the Eastgate shopping centre in Basildon, Essex, which went for £89m – more than British Land's valuation.

British Land also announced it was changing its auditor – the latest big company to make the switch after political and investor pressure to make sure auditors are independent of management.

It will replace Deloitte with PwC, another member of the so-called big four accountants, on 1 April. Investor groups had criticised the company's relationship with Deloitte because of the large amount of lucrative non-audit work the firm did for British Land, creating a potential conflict of interest.

British Land shares were up 0.8% to 667p in early trading.

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Growing economy shows Britain is on the right track, ministers say

Coalition ministers say growth figures showing economy grew by 1.9 per cent in 2013 mean that the Government's economic plan is working

New figures showing that the economy is growing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis prove Britain is on the right course, coalition ministers have declared.

George Osborne said the numbers were a “boost for the economic security of hardworking people” with manufacturing growing fastest of all.

“It is more evidence that our long term economic plan is working," the Chancellor added.

Nick Clegg said the economy is moving in the “right direction” with unemployment down and growth up. However the deputy Prime Minister also warned that future growth must be achieved “fairly” with investment in jobs outside London.

Official figures released today show the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2013. Growth last year was 1.9 per cent in all, the biggest annual expansion since 2007, when the financial crisis began.

The UK economy is still smaller than it was when the crisis struck – and many households are poorer. But figures suggest that consumers and businesses alike are increasingly confident about the future.

Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said the figures were further evidence that “the recovery is becoming established” with 2013 becoming the first year since 2007 to see economic growth in all four quarters.

However Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, said that the growth figures are welcome and "long overdue" but warned that the recovery is not "built to last" as business investment is "weak" and construction output down.

Announcing the figures last night Vince Cable, the Business Secretary said the figures represented a “real recovery” with business leaders speaking of a "real upsurge.”

However, he also warned that there were significant risks to a sustained recovery, particularly the housing market.

In a speech to the Royal Economics Society at the Bank of England Mr Cable said: “There has been a positive change in economic sentiment over the last six months or so. A real recovery is taking place,” Mr Cable said on Monday night.

He added: “Despite a fall in real earnings, consumers have had the confidence to start spending again – dipping into their savings held for a rainy day and making use of rising house prices, at least in London and the South East, to borrow more easily,” he said. Improved jobs prospects have also “probably” helped boost the economy.

Joe Grice, chief economist at the Office for National Statistics said: ““We have now seen four successive quarters of significant growth and the economy does seem to be improving more consistently.

“Today's estimate suggests over four fifths of the fall in GDP during the recession has been recovered, although it still remains 1.3 per cent below the pre-recession peak.”

The CBI, Britain’s biggest business lobby, also said that more British companies are seeing their sales grow than at any time since the crisis began.

“A picture is unfolding of a real upsurge in output across much of the UK economy,” said Katja Hall, the CBI’s chief policy director.

“Many firms in many sectors are feeling brighter about their prospects than they have for a long time, showing the recovery is gaining traction. While some risks remain, we expect the economy to continue to strengthen through 2014.”

John Longworth, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce said that businesses across Britain are growing more "bullish" about their prospects.

He said: "Many companies are accelerating their pace for the first time in years, with others saying they're set to do the same. Our surveys now consistently show business confidence levels not seen for decades."

The figures from the Office for National Statistics and the CBI data are the latest signs that the UK economy is on the rebound.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for UK growth by the biggest margin of any economy. It now expects the UK to grow by 2.4pc in 2014, in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Government’s fiscal watchdog.

Conservative and Liberal Democrat ministers alike are keen to take credit for the recovery, claiming it vindicates Coalition economic policies.

However, there are still fears that the recovery will not last because it is too heavily reliant on consumer spending and rising house prices, while business investment remains subdued.

“Despite these encouraging signs, the shape of the recovery so far has not been all we might have hoped for,” Mr Cable said.

Echoing Sir Winston Churchill in 1942, he suggested that the UK economy is now at “the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.”

The ONS figures show that output in the service sector – which makes up more than three quarters of GDP – rose by 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, maintaining its pace from the previous months.

But industrial output growth slowed to 0.7 percent from 0.8 per cent and construction – which accounts for less than 8 percent of GDP – fell by 0.3 per cent.

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UK economy grows at fastest rate in six years in 2013

Britain's economy in 2013 recorded its fastest annual growth since the financial crisis despite a slight slowdown in the last three months of the year, official data showed on Tuesday.

Supporting expectations for a bright 2014, Britain's gross domestic product rose by 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said - in line with economists' forecasts for a small reduction from the third quarter's pace.

This rapid rate of growth - which is above Britain's long-run trend - is likely to increase speculation about when the Bank of England will raise record-low interest rates.

BoE Governor Mark Carney has said there is no need for rates to rise anytime soon, as Britain's total output is still well below pre-crisis levels. But unemployment has fallen far faster than the bank forecast in August, raising questions about what long-term inflation pressures might be building in the economy.

Tuesday's quarterly GDP figure took Britain's full-year growth for 2013 up to 1.9 percent from just 0.3 percent the year before. This is the highest since 2007, although total output is still 1.3 percent below the pre-financial crisis peak reached in the first three months of 2008 - a weaker situation than in almost all other big advanced economies.

A long list of economic indicators over the last few months have suggested Britain's economy is recovering faster than either policymakers or independent forecasters predicted.

Data from the Confederation of British Industry released earlier on Tuesday suggest 2013's strong growth had continued into January.

Figures last week showed British unemployment plunged to within a whisker of the Bank of England's level for considering an increase in interest rates, but the central bank stressed it would be in no rush to act.

Tuesday's figures will also be a boon for Britain's coalition government.

With growing evidence the recovery is gaining strength, opinion polls for the 2015 election suggest the Conservative-led government still lags behind the Labour opposition, which says Britons have been hurt by the rising cost of living.

Output in Britain's service sector - which makes up more than three quarters of GDP - rose by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, maintaining its pace from the previous months, which was the fastest in a year.

But industrial output growth slowed to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent, as the strongest manufacturing growth since the third quarter of 2010 proved insufficient to offset falling North Sea oil and gas output.

Construction - which accounts for less than 8 percent of GDP - fell by 0.3 percent, reflecting a weak November.

A survey on Monday showed British households have a growing sense of job security and declining fears that inflation is driving prices higher.

So far, the recovery has been fuelled by consumer spending and an upturn in the housing market, although BoE policymakers over the last week have said they expect business investment to begin making a contribution later in the year.

Critics of the government's economic policies say its attempts to revive the housing market will not help bring about the long-hoped for rebalancing of Britain's economy towards more manufacturing and exports.

The ONS's preliminary estimates of GDP are among the first in the European Union, and are based partly on estimated data. On average, they are revised by 0.1-0.2 percentage points up or down by the time a third estimate is published two months later.

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Britain's tax system 'not fit for purpose

Britain's tax system is not “fit for purpose” and must be overhauled if companies are to pay their “fair share” of tax, leading UK chief executives have warned.

Sparking the start of a fightback on tax by businesses, PwC’s Annual CEO Survey has revealed that 73pc of UK bosses believe the present tax system is unfit for the 21st century, and 72pc say efforts to reform it will be in vain.

Business leaders believe it is up to politicians to sort out the system but have little confidence that processes backed by Prime Minister David Cameron will bear fruit.

Globally, the PwC survey revealed that 75pc of CEOs questioned believe that paying a “fair share” of tax was important to their company.

“There’s been a lot of criticism around the tax arrangements they [companies] have put in place,” Ian Powell, UK chairman of PwC, told The Telegraph on the eve of the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.

But actually, it’s become a political question, because as long as countries are trying to use tax rates as a way to bring jobs into their own country, you are going to get tax arbitrage.

“What CEOs are asking for is: can we get some clarity on this, and can we get more consistency on tax arrangements, which would make it a lot easier for them to handle their affairs.”

More than two-thirds of UK chief executives said they believed current OECD attempts to reform the international tax system would be unsuccessful in the next few years, far higher than the average of 40pc across the globe.

Multi-national companies such as Amazon and Google have come under fire in recent years and have been criticised by MPs for how they handle their international tax affairs and for a lack of transparency.

However, the survey showed that 66pc of UK chief executives believed that companies with international divisions should be required to publish the revenues, profits and taxes paid for each territory in which they operate.

Google boss Eric Schmidt has made it clear that his company abides by all tax laws and that it is up to politicians to change the rules - an opinion backed by the survey.

Mr Cameron made tax reform the centrepiece of both his appearance at Davos last year and the most recent G8 summit in Northern Ireland, of which the UK was president.

Although the UK survey results were based on a small sample of 43 CEOs, it highlights that tax policies and competitiveness of tax regimes are becoming increasingly important issues and that CEOs want them to be urgently addressed.

“Virtually every business that operates on an international basis now operates through the internet,” said Mr Powell. “The tax arrangements that are in place at the moment make it virtually impossible to allow companies to know where they should be paying tax, not what tax they should be paying.”

Azure Global’s vision is to be widely recognized as a reputed firm of financial business advisors, achieving real growth for ambitious companies and to become the first choice for F&A outsourcing for accountancy practices and businesses alike for more info visit our site Azure Global and join us also On Facebook

Bank of England in no rush to raise rates as unemployment plunges

British unemployment plunged to within a whisker of the Bank of England's level for considering an increase in interest rates, data showed on Wednesday, but the central bank stressed it would be in no rush to act.
The unemployment rate dropped to 7.1 percent in the three months to November, a fraction above the 7 percent level which the bank has said is its threshold for thinking about raising interest rates from their current all-time low of 0.5 percent.

Sterling hit a one-year high against the euro and British government bond spreads over German debt widened to an eight-year high as investors bet that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than it has been signalling.

Citi's chief UK economist Michael Saunders brought forward his estimate by six months to the fourth quarter of this year. "We expect the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will lift the policy rate to 2 percent ... by late-2015, still leaving policy supportive of growth," he said.

The rate of 7.1 percent was below any forecast by economists in a Reuters poll and the lowest in nearly five years. It was down from a previous level of 7.4 percent, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

The number of people in work grew by a record amount, a further sign of the economy's rapid turnaround.

BoE policymakers stressed, however, they would not be hurried into raising rates. Their case has been helped by a fall in inflation to the Bank's target for the first time in more than four years.

"Members therefore saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the 7 percent unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future," they said in minutes of their January policy meeting, released at the same time as the jobs data.

The minutes also made clear that when an interest rate rise does eventually come, fragile prospects for growth and low inflation means moves will be gradual.

The BoE is expected to use the publication of its Quarterly Inflation Report next month to give an update on its guidance, possibly by lowering the threshold unemployment rate below 7 percent or by underscoring how the threshold is not a trigger.

Policymakers said via the minutes they now expect unemployment to hit 7 percent "materially earlier than previously expected" and that the equilibrium employment "might be lower than previously thought".

The BoE has previously said that although Britain's long-run equilibrium unemployment rate is around 5 percent, inflation pressures could start to build around 6.5 percent.

THRESHOLD APPROACHING

The jobless rate was the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. The ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell by 24,000 in December, compared with a forecast for a fall of 35,000 in the Reuters poll.

It said the number of people in work rose by 280,000 in the three months to November, an all-time record.

Wage pressures remained low. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.9 percent on the year, half the rate of inflation.

The BoE put unemployment at the heart of its monetary policy last August when it said it would not think about raising borrowing costs - which have been at the record low since 2009 - until the rate fell to 7 percent.

Since then, Britain's recovery has picked up more speed than the Bank expected and unemployment has fallen fast. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday sharply raised its forecasts for British economic growth this year.

The IMF also urged central banks around the world to avoid raising interest rates too soon to avoid choking off the recovery in their economies.

To quell speculation that the BoE might be hurried into raising interest rates, Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly stressed that unemployment falling to 7 percent would not be an automatic trigger for a rate hike.

The details of this month's BoE policy discussion strengthened that message, making clear the Bank does not intend to raise rates soon, even if unemployment hits 7 percent soon.

Despite its rapid recovery, the British economy remains 2 percent smaller than before the financial crisis.

As more long-term unemployed people have found jobs recently, the medium-term equilibrium rate could be a bit below 6.5 percent. This caused some traders to see a greater chance that the BoE could lower its 7 percent guidance threshold as soon as its February meeting. BoE official have previously floated the possibility of a lower unemployment threshold.

Any such decision is likely to be complex given the uncertainties around the labour market. The BoE said productivity was not picking up as expected.

That could push up longer-term inflation pressures and possibly strengthen the argument for not further delaying consideration of higher interest rates.

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