Bank of England could raise interest rates next spring, says MPC member

MPC member Ian McCafferty says market expectations rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 are 'not unreasonable'

A Bank of England policymaker has reinforced expectations that the first rise in interest rates will come as soon as next spring, in remarks that pushed up the pound.

Ian McCafferty, a member of the monetary policy committee, said that market expectations that the Bank of England will start to raise rates in the second quarter of 2015 are "not unreasonable". He told news agency Reuters in an interview that wage deals in coming months would be "quite critical" as policymakers watch for inflation risks.

Under governor Mark Carney, earlier this month the Bank overhauled its forward guidance policy on when rates would rise from their record low of 0.5%. At the time it said a view in markets that rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 was consistent with its goal of keeping inflation close to the government-set 2% target. McCafferty told Reuters: "In that sense, you'd have to say that that market curve is not unreasonable.

"The exact timing of course is going to depend on events that have yet to unfold in terms of how the recovery proceeds over the course of the next six to 12 months or so."

Following his remarks being published, the pound rose to session highs against the dollar and euro.

McCafferty, a former chief economic adviser to business group CBI, said he was watching for pressures on inflation from pay deals negotiated in coming months. After years above its target inflation has now fallen below 2%, to stand at 1.9% in January.

"I suppose my view would be if anything, the risk I am watching for, because I think it fits with our mandate, is were we to see inflation risks or inflation behaviour start to develop," he said. "At the moment, that seems to be well under control.

"If we did see some inflationary pressure – more than we currently expect in our central case – that would if anything, I suspect, lead the committee to consider slightly earlier rate rises."

The policymaker said another factor to watch was the strength of the pound, which last week strengthened to a four-year high against the dollar.

"Were it to continue to rise, I would get more worried," McCafferty said, and indicated further strengthening could delay a rate hike.

"It's clearly a consideration in terms of total monetary conditions in the economy so we would need to take it into account when determining what the appropriate monetary stance would be going forward," he said.

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UK inflation falls below Bank of England's 2% target

Rate dropped to 1.9% in January, the first time it has dipped below target in more than four years

Inflation fell below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in more than four years in January, brightening the outlook for Britain's squeezed consumers.

The annual rate of inflation dipped to 1.9% last month from 2% in December, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven lower by prices of furniture and other household goods, alcohol and tobacco, DVDs and tourist attraction entry costs.

It was the first time since November 2009 that inflation has fallen below target. Economists said the figures reflected particularly aggressive discounting this year as retailers competed in the January sales.

Inflation has been falling steadily in recent months after reaching a peak of 5.2% in September 2011. It finally returned to the 2% target for the first time in four years in December.

Economists said inflation was likely to fall further in the coming months, boosting the chance that wage growth will outpace inflation in 2014 for the first time in years, easing the pressure on household budgets.

Wage growth was just 0.9% in the latest available data for the three months to November, still less than half the inflation rate.

"There is a good chance that CPI inflation will fall to as low as 1% by the end of this year and remain subdued thereafter," said Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Capital Economics.

"This should enable real earnings to rise for the first year since 2007 and allow the [Bank's] monetary policy committee to keep interest rates on hold until well into next year."

Despite a backdrop of falling inflation and economic growth, the Bank of England made it clear last week it is in no hurry to raise interest rates – which have been at an all-time low of 0.5% since March 2009 – suggesting there would be no rise until after the general election next year.

The Bank's governor, Mark Carney, said its policymakers would not take risks with this recovery, which is as yet "neither balanced nor sustainable".

The retail prices index, historically used to calculate wage rises, rose to 2.8% in January from 2.7% in December, driven higher by insurance, air fares and fuel prices.

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Bank of England launches inquiry into forex manipulation claims

Senior currency trader says Bank officials condoned information sharing between traders under investigation

The Bank of England has launched an internal inquiry into allegations that its officials endorsed sharing of information between traders in the foreign exchange market, the central bank's deputy governor told MPs.

The inquiry will examine claims that at a meeting between Bank officials and senior currency traders last April the officials said it was permissible for traders in different banks to share information about clients' positions ahead of the setting of a benchmark rate in the foreign exchange market.

Andrew Bailey told the Treasury select committee: "The governors of the Bank have taken the claims about the meeting with the Bank's officials extremely seriously since we first heard about these allegations. Just so you know, we first heard about them in October.

"The governors immediately initiated a full review into it led by the Bank of England's legal counsel but also supported by external legal counsel and also in close collaboration with the FCA [financial conduct authority]."

Bailey, who is in charge of supervising financial firms, said the Bank had found no evidence that officials had endorsed sharing of information but added: "We do not regard that review as over."

Bloomberg News reported last week that a senior currency trader had informed the financial conduct authority that Bank staff at the April meeting had condoned information sharing. Alleged collusion in setting benchmark rates in the foreign exchange market is at the centre of allegations of market manipulation that could be as big as the Libor scandal.

Bailey said the Bank's inquiry had not yet seen the anonymous trader's notes from the meeting.

Bailey agreed with committee member Pat McFadden that if true the allegations would be "extremely damaging" to the Bank's reputation.

"I agree with you on that. That is why we have set up this investigation and this process," Bailey said. "The governors take the whole question of the reputation and integrity of the central bank extremely seriously. It's the most important thing we have."

The benchmark in question is used to price a wide variety of financial products and is the subject of regulators' attention amid allegations that traders at rival banks were sharing information about their orders from clients to manipulate the price.

A record of the April meeting released by the Bank showed it was chaired by Martin Mallett, its chief currency dealer, and included an entry entitled "extra item". The record says: "Processes around fixes. There was a brief discussion on extra levels of compliance that many bank trading desks were subject to when managing client risks around the main set-piece benchmark fixings."

Martin Wheatley, chief executive of the FCA, which is in charge of stamping out market abuse, told MPs last week that the allegations were "every bit as bad" as those surrounding Libor. Banks have been fined billions of pounds over the Libor scandal.

The meeting was between senior traders at investment banks and a subcommittee of the Bank's foreign exchange standing committee. Bloomberg was told that during a 15-minute conversation about currency benchmarks traders said they used chat rooms to match buyers and sellers ahead of the one-minute period when rates were fixed to avoid trading at a volatile time.

The officials are alleged to have said the practice might benefit markets because it made them more stable.

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Bank of England governor: interest rate rise not on the agenda

Mark Carney vows to keep cost of borrowing at record low 0.5% despite policy linking a rate rise to a sharp fall in unemployment

An early increase in borrowing costs was ruled out by the governor of theBank of England as he insisted that this week's faster than expected fall in unemployment will not lead to an automatic interest rate rise that might choke off the recovery.

All but burying his "forward guidance" policy of linking an interest rate rise to a fall in the rate of unemployment to 7%, Mark Carney vowed to keep borrowing costs at their record low of 0.5% for the time being. He was speaking a day after it emerged that the unemployment rate fell to 7.1%.

Interviewed on BBC's Newsnight, Carney rejected the idea that plunging unemployment was a headache for the Bank. "If our forecast is going to be wrong it's better to be wrong in that direction," he said.

Carney also said that when the Bank decided to raise interest rates for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, the moves would be gradual.

Economists have warned that a rise to around 3% in the interest rate would lead to huge increases in mortgage costs and a wave of repossessions, as well as damage business.

Downing Street and the Treasury have been looking nervously at the politically unpredictable consequences of repeated small interest rate rises before the general election in May 2015.

Although the Treasury maintains that an interest rate rise would help savers and be a sign of an economy returning to normality, No 10 is more ambivalent.

Downing Street feels assured that Carney is a practical Bank governor driven by the state of the real economy, unlike his more academic predecessor Mervyn King.

The governor said the Bank's monetary policy committee would be looking at all aspects of the labour market and not just the unemployment rate. The MPC had used the 7% figure to enshrine the idea that joblessness would have to fall considerably before he would "even begin to think about" raising borrowing costs.

Some City analysts are expecting Carney to announce in the next few months that he will lower the threshold at which the Bank would consider raising interest rates to an unemployment level of 6.5%.

The governor said that would be decided by the MPC but added that it was "really about overall conditions in the whole labour market", where productivity remains poor and many people working part-time still want full-time jobs.

Carney said the economy was "coming off a low base" and output was still below the levels when the economy dropped into its deepest recession since the second world war.

"The worst of the crisis is behind us but the financial system is not functioning as well as it could," he said. "Uncertainty among households and businesses is still preventing investment."

No 10 remains convinced that a year of growth, so long as it does not tip into over-heating, will ensure Labour's stubborn opinion poll lead is worn down into 2015.

Although David Cameron urged voters to be patient on living standards, his aides believe average incomes, once tax changes are taken into account, are already starting to rise above prices.

In a speech to business people in Davos, Switzerland, the prime minister will try to present his most optimistic long-term vision of the UK economy for many years , saying Britain can become "the re-shore nation" with businesses bringing production back to the UK, encouraged by cheaper energy costs and the lure of shorter customer chains.

Cameron will hold out the example of the United States where collapsing energy costs owing to fracking have led businesses to relocate back to the US.

He will say: "There is no doubt that when it comes to reshoring in the US, one of the most important factors has been the development of shale gas which is flooring US energy prices with billions of dollars of energy cost savings predicted over the next decade.

"I believe these trends have the ability to be a fresh driver of growth in Europe too. I want Britain to seize these opportunities. I think there is a chance for Britain to become the Reshore Nation."

Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said: "The Tory-led government came to office promising an export-led recovery but the UK's trade deficit is growing. Any help for manufacturers is welcome after three damaging years of flatlining and in a month where factory orders have fallen back.

"But after so many government schemes have failed to deliver for business, manufacturers will want to see what this one offers in practice."

Cameron's hopes for a boom built on fracking are not shared by the energy department, which is much more ambivalent about the ability of Britain – for geological, political and environmental reasons – to match the US fracking boom, at least not for more than a decade.

The prime minister will try to rebut internal critics tired of the Tory party's negativity by striking a more optimistic note. He will say: "For years the west has been written off. People say we are facing some sort of inevitable decline. They say we can't make anything any more.

"Whether it's the shift from manufacturing to services or the transfer from manual jobs to machines, the end point is the same dystopian vision – the east wins while the west loses, and the workers lose while the machines win. I don't believe it has to be this way. If we make the right decisions, we may also see more of what has been a small but discernible trend where some jobs that were once offshored are coming back from east to west."

To back the rhetoric, UK Trade & Investment will join forces with the Manufacturing Advisory Service to launch Reshore UK, a service to help companies bring production back to Britain.

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Bank of England in no rush to raise rates as unemployment plunges

British unemployment plunged to within a whisker of the Bank of England's level for considering an increase in interest rates, data showed on Wednesday, but the central bank stressed it would be in no rush to act.
The unemployment rate dropped to 7.1 percent in the three months to November, a fraction above the 7 percent level which the bank has said is its threshold for thinking about raising interest rates from their current all-time low of 0.5 percent.

Sterling hit a one-year high against the euro and British government bond spreads over German debt widened to an eight-year high as investors bet that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than it has been signalling.

Citi's chief UK economist Michael Saunders brought forward his estimate by six months to the fourth quarter of this year. "We expect the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will lift the policy rate to 2 percent ... by late-2015, still leaving policy supportive of growth," he said.

The rate of 7.1 percent was below any forecast by economists in a Reuters poll and the lowest in nearly five years. It was down from a previous level of 7.4 percent, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

The number of people in work grew by a record amount, a further sign of the economy's rapid turnaround.

BoE policymakers stressed, however, they would not be hurried into raising rates. Their case has been helped by a fall in inflation to the Bank's target for the first time in more than four years.

"Members therefore saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the 7 percent unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future," they said in minutes of their January policy meeting, released at the same time as the jobs data.

The minutes also made clear that when an interest rate rise does eventually come, fragile prospects for growth and low inflation means moves will be gradual.

The BoE is expected to use the publication of its Quarterly Inflation Report next month to give an update on its guidance, possibly by lowering the threshold unemployment rate below 7 percent or by underscoring how the threshold is not a trigger.

Policymakers said via the minutes they now expect unemployment to hit 7 percent "materially earlier than previously expected" and that the equilibrium employment "might be lower than previously thought".

The BoE has previously said that although Britain's long-run equilibrium unemployment rate is around 5 percent, inflation pressures could start to build around 6.5 percent.

THRESHOLD APPROACHING

The jobless rate was the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. The ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell by 24,000 in December, compared with a forecast for a fall of 35,000 in the Reuters poll.

It said the number of people in work rose by 280,000 in the three months to November, an all-time record.

Wage pressures remained low. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.9 percent on the year, half the rate of inflation.

The BoE put unemployment at the heart of its monetary policy last August when it said it would not think about raising borrowing costs - which have been at the record low since 2009 - until the rate fell to 7 percent.

Since then, Britain's recovery has picked up more speed than the Bank expected and unemployment has fallen fast. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday sharply raised its forecasts for British economic growth this year.

The IMF also urged central banks around the world to avoid raising interest rates too soon to avoid choking off the recovery in their economies.

To quell speculation that the BoE might be hurried into raising interest rates, Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly stressed that unemployment falling to 7 percent would not be an automatic trigger for a rate hike.

The details of this month's BoE policy discussion strengthened that message, making clear the Bank does not intend to raise rates soon, even if unemployment hits 7 percent soon.

Despite its rapid recovery, the British economy remains 2 percent smaller than before the financial crisis.

As more long-term unemployed people have found jobs recently, the medium-term equilibrium rate could be a bit below 6.5 percent. This caused some traders to see a greater chance that the BoE could lower its 7 percent guidance threshold as soon as its February meeting. BoE official have previously floated the possibility of a lower unemployment threshold.

Any such decision is likely to be complex given the uncertainties around the labour market. The BoE said productivity was not picking up as expected.

That could push up longer-term inflation pressures and possibly strengthen the argument for not further delaying consideration of higher interest rates.

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UK unemployment rate falls to 7.1%

Jobless rate falls to within whisker of Bank of England's forward guidance threshold for considering interest rate rise

The Bank of England sent a clear message that it has no immediate plans to raise interest rates, despite a shock fall in the unemployment rate close to the level at which the Bank said it would consider a hike.

Policymakers sought to ease fears of a rise after Britain's jobless rate fell sharply to 7.1% in the three months to November from 7.4%. It was a far bigger drop than economists were expecting, with most forecasting a modest fall to 7.3%.

Ian McCafferty, a member of the Bank's rate setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said that although economic recovery was underway and unemployment was falling, inflation was back at the Bank's 2% target, easing the pressure to raise rates.

"It is therefore worth restating that the 7% unemployment level is only a threshold, not a trigger, and that the MPC sees no immediate need to increase interest rates even if 7% were to be hit in the near future," he said in a speech in Nottingham on Wednesday evening.

His comments reiterated those in the minutes of the MPC's January policy meeting, which showed there would be no rush to raise rates. The committee said that when the time did come to raise rates, it would do so "only gradually".

It suggested it would not raise rates until the Bank it had seen a pick up in wages growth and a more established recovery. Economists including those at the EY Item Club are not expecting a hike before mid 2015. Interest rates have been at an all-time low of 0.5% since March 2009.

"By then, we expect the recovery to have broadened out into exports and investment and real wages should be growing again. The consumer needs that time to get its breath back following all the heavy lifting undertaken in recent quarters," said Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to the Item Club.

When the Bank's governor Mark Carney announced the introduction of so-called "forward guidance" on rates last summer, he was not expecting the jobless rate to fall to 7% until 2016. The Bank has since updated its view, but its most recent forecast suggested the rate would not be reached until the second half of 2015. In reality it now looks possible it will fall to that level next month.

Economists said the Bank's next move would most likely be to announce a change to its forward guidance policy when it next updates its forecasts in the February inflation report, possibly by lowering the threshold to 6.5% unemployment and introducing a supplementary wage rise measure.

"Overall we gain the impression that the MPC does not want to raise rates soon and that (perhaps) it will bring its unemployment threshold down, possibly next month," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec.

The total number of people out of work in Britain fell by 167,000 to 2.32 million in the three months to November according to the Office for National Statistics data.

The number of people claiming jobless benefits in the UK also fell by 24,000 to a near five-year low of 1.25 million in December.

The employment minister, Esther McVey, said: "It's clear that the government's long-term economic plan to get people off benefits and into work so they can secure their future is proving successful."

Employment meanwhile jumped by 280,000 to 30.15 million – the biggest quarterly rise since records began in 1971 – driven mainly by a rise in people with full-time work.

Commenting on the increase, David Cameron said: "More jobs means more security, peace of mind and opportunity for the British people."

Despite the rise in employment, wage growth was flat at 0.9% between September and November, less than half the current 2% rate of inflation. People in the UK earned £447 a week on average in November, before tax and excluding bonuses. People worked an average 32.2 hour week over the three months, compared with 31.1hours in the previous quarter.

MPC members said the slow pace of wage growth in the UK appeared to reflect weak growth in productivity, the January minutes showed.

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UK unemployment: challenge for Carney as jobless rate expected to fall

Falling unemployment has raised speculation the Bank of England could alter or abandon its forward guidance policy

Britain's unemployment rate is expected to have come down again when official data are released on Wednesday morning, bringing cheer to the government but a challenge to the Bank of England.

Economists forecast the jobless rate edged down to 7.3% in the three months to November from 7.4% in the three months to October, according to a Reuters poll.

That would be the lowest rate for more than four-and-a-half years and continues the trend of unemployment falling faster than BoE policymakers had been expecting. That has raised speculation the Bank will alter, or even abandon, its forward guidance policy, under which it vows not to consider an interest rate rise until unemployment has fallen to 7%.

The improving headline figures on the labour market from the Office for National Statistics echo business surveys indicating many firms are more optimistic about hiring now the recovery is picking up pace.

"We believe that it should be very easy for the unemployment rate to fall to 7.3% in this week's November reading and more likely will fall to 7.2%," says Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank.

James Knightley at ING said the labour market data was likely to show "broad strength".

"The UK has created nearly 1.3 million jobs since the nadir of the labour market in early 2010, 250,000 of them in the past three months alone. Initially they were largely part-time jobs focused in London and the south-east, but increasingly they are full-time positions and located all around the country," he said.

The latest manufacturing sector survey from the CBI on Tuesday showed a bigger proportion of companies expect to lift their employment over the coming quarter. Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, said that "fuels belief that the unemployment rate could very well get down to the critical 7% threshold level, under which the Bank of England could raise interest rates, by the middle of this year".

But not everyone believes the jobs recovery is evenly spread across the UK. The TUC trade unions group this week said the recent pickup in jobs had failed to reach the north-east, the north-west, Wales and the south-west, leaving them in the same situation or worse at providing jobs than they were 20 years ago.

At the same time, although employment has picked up, wage rises have remained on average below inflation, meaning many workers are worse off in real terms.

Economists forecast Wednesday's data will show annual average earnings growth of 1% for November, excluding bonuses. That marks an increase from 0.8% growth in October but is still well below inflation which came in at 2% for December.

At the same time as the unemployment data, the Bank of England releases the minutes to its latest policy meeting. Policymakers held rates at their record low of 0.5% at the meeting but economists think there was probably a discussion among members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) as to whether the unemployment threshold should be lowered.

Samuel Tombs at the thinktank Capital Economics said: "Some of the more hawkish members might be in favour of sticking to the original guidance. But we suspect that a majority will have begun to consider how they could alter their guidance in order to get market interest rates and sterling down from present levels that, if left unchecked, could soon begin to take some of the pace out of the recovery. Indeed, we believe that there is a strong chance that the MPC will lower the unemployment threshold next month to coincide with the Inflation Report."

Some economists say it is time to move on from forward guidance.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Berenberg bank, says the Bank should "let forward guidance wither" and return to targeting inflation.

"When the BoE introduced forward guidance just six months ago, they saw only a 50% chance that unemployment would fall to 7% by mid-2016. That is now likely in the next few months," he said.

"Lowering the unemployment threshold would unnecessarily tether the BoE to a dangerously low target. A rate rise is not needed now, but it will be needed before unemployment gets to 6.5%."

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Bank customers unable to calculate overdraft fees, Which? research finds

Call to force banks to make it easier to compare overdraft fees and other current account charges

Bank customers have no idea how to calculate overdraft charges, according to research by consumer body Which?. It is now calling on the government to force banks to make it easier to compare current account fees.

Which? asked a group of bank customers to work out the total cost of using an unauthorised overdraft at each of the 12 biggest banks. Despite being given access to all the banks' websites, few of those tested could correctly calculate the true cost of going overdrawn once interest and other fixed charges were added to any daily fees or penalties for unpaid transactions.

Across the group of customers tested, just 10 of the 72 calculations were made correctly. A principal inspector of taxes was right on only one of four calculations, while a retired headteacher got all his answers wrong. Only six of the 18 volunteers thought that a typical consumer would be able to compare the charges.

Which? executive director Richard Lloyd said true charging transparency would encourage more people to switch accounts.

"Consumers are faced with a myriad of complicated charges for using an unauthorised overdraft, and it's virtually impossible for people to calculate and compare the cost of running a current account. To boost competition we want the government to make banks release data about how customers use their accounts so it's easier for them to work out charges and rank providers by cost."

Which? says this data could be used to develop comparison tools that would allow consumers to rank providers according to their financial situation.

British Bankers' Association's director Eric Leenders played down the Which? findings, saying the banks already help customers to compare account charges.

"All the major banks also make information about customers' current account use available to them in a downloadable format as required by the government's initiative to encourage transparency."

He said overdraft charges have plummeted since 2008, with estimated consumer savings of up to £928m over the past five years.

Earlier this week it emerged that more than 300,000 people switched current accounts in the final three months of 2013, up 17% on a year earlier.

The Payments Council, the body responsible for payment services which published the numbers, said it marked an "encouraging start" for its seven-day account switching service, which was launched in September. However, Which? has reported that two-thirds of people who moved accounts had problems, while more than a quarter said it took eight working days or more.

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Bank of England holds cards close to chest on guidance options

 The Bank of England kept investors guessing on Thursday as to whether it might be considering a change to its pledge to keep interest rates on hold as Britain's economic recovery picks up.

It also did not take the unusual step - but one which some investors had considered possible - of issuing a statement to address the speed at which Britain's unemployment rate is falling towards its threshold for considering a rate hike.

"No guidance on guidance yet," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note to clients. He said details of discussions among the BoE's policymakers on their options for changing guidance were likely to appear when minutes of this week's meeting are published on January 22.

Britain moved from being a laggard to a leader in terms of growth among the world's biggest economies last year.

Its economy is expanding by more than 3 percent in annualised terms although there are concerns the recovery could prove unsustainable, especially as wage growth remains weak.

The BoE said in August it will not think about raising rates until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Since then unemployment has come down much faster than the Bank expected, raising questions about how long it can hold off on raising rates.

But inflation has also fallen to within a whisker of its 2 percent target, reducing the pressure on the BoE.

After its two-day meeting, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates at 0.5 percent, as expected by all the economists who took part in a Reuters poll.

It also left its bond-buying programme unchanged at 375 billion pounds.

The turnaround in Britain's economy contrasts with the situation in the euro zone, its main trading partner, where the European Central Bank is expected to use a news conference on Thursday to remind investors it could ease policy further.

The pace of Britain's recovery has helped the pound to strengthen by 5 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the dollar since the middle of last year.

Sterling strengthened briefly against the dollar after the MPC's announcement of no change in policy. British government bond prices rose slightly.

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Loans to business getting cheaper and more readily available, Bank says

Availability of credit to corporate sector increased significantly in fourth quarter of 2013, according to Bank of England

Hopes of an end to the prolonged fall in business lending were boosted on Wednesday when the Bank of England announced that loans were becoming cheaper and more readily available to the UK corporate sector.

In a regular update, Threadneedle Street said there were signs that credit conditions had eased for companies towards the end of last year.

"The overall availability of credit to the corporate sector increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to lenders, and a further increase was expected in the first quarter of 2014," the Bank said. "Lenders reported that the availability of credit had increased for small businesses and large private non-financial corporations."

It added that the final three months of last year had also seen more credit become available for mortgages, particularly on homes with high loan-to-value ratios. A "significant" further increase in availability is expected in the first quarter of 2014.

The Bank said demand for credit remained patchy. Households and medium-sized businesses were taking advantage of the easier conditions, but demand from small businesses was flat and there was a slight increase in demand from big companies.

Threadneedle Street also reported lower interest rates for borrowers as measured by the spread between the official bank rate of 0.5% and the loan rates charged to individuals and businesses.

"Spreads on corporate lending fell in the fourth quarter, with significant reductions reported for medium-sized companies and large private non-financial corporations (PNFCs), and a slight reduction reported for small businesses. Over the next three months, lenders expected spreads to tighten further for medium-sized companies and large PNFCs, and to be little changed for small businesses."

Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, said: "Steady improvements in credit conditions are continuing and the Bank's survey brings further signs that finance providers are making more credit available and risk appetite is increasing. However, the issue of cost is still lingering for smaller businesses. With a turnaround in investment on the cards for this year we will also need to see a real pick-up in net lending to businesses and fewer companies saying they have been discouraged from accessing external finance."

Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, said the pick-up in credit availability to companies was encouraging but had yet to translate into increased corporate lending.

"Indeed, latest data from the Bank of England shows that net lending to non-financial companies fell by £4.7bn in November. This was the sharpest drop since the series started in April 2011. Net lending had previously fallen by £1.1bn on October following a rare rise of £714m in September."

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Co-op Bank execs face BoE investigation

The Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority have confirmed they will launch investigations into the near collapse of the Co-op Bank

Former senior managers of the Co-op Bank are to be investigated by Britain’s two financial regulators over their role in the near failure of the troubled lender that last year discovered a £1.5bn capital shortfall.

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), the Bank of England-run bank supervisor, and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) have confirmed they have begun an “enforcement investigation” into the Co-op Bank that will look at the actions of the lender’s “former senior managers”.

The launch of the investigation follows a two-month-long joint inquiry by the PRA and the FCA into the circumstances that led to the Co-op Bank’s troubles that will see the lender’s parent, the Co-op Group, give up control of the business to its bondholders.

The investigation could lead to former manager being fined, suspended and possibly banned from working in the financial services industry. The investigation could also lead to criminal action should the officials find any evidence of wrongdoing by individuals, though this would require a separate police investigation.

The Reverend Paul Flowers, the former chairman of the Co-op Bank, is already the subject of a police investigation into his alleged drug-taking, but will now face a probe into his professional conduct while at the bank, along with other former directors and executives.

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UK interest rates to stay at 0.5% in 2014 - economists

Interest rates in the UK are unlikely to rise this year, according to a snapshot of views of the UK's top economists from the BBC.

An overwhelming majority, 93% of the 28 economists polled, think rates will still be 0.5% at the end of 2014, with more than half predicting the first rise in the second half of 2015.

More than 40% believe unemployment will fall to 7% in 2014, from 7.4% now.

Two-thirds also think wage increases will overtake inflation this year.

Some observers have suggested recent rises in house prices could force the Bank of England to raise rates sometime in 2014, but the majority of economists used by the Treasury and polled by the BBC rejected this view.

Almost 80% think rates will begin to rise in 2015, with 15% saying they will not increase until 2016. Only 7% of those polled think rates will rise in 2014.

The unemployment rate of 7% is significant because this is the level the Bank has said needs to be breached before it considers raising interest rates.

The snapshot suggests there is less certainty in the City about unemployment levels than there is about interest rates.

Although more than 40% think the jobless rate will hit 7% this year, exactly half think that will not be until 2015. Just 8% think it will not be until 2016.

Three respondents actually believe rates will rise before unemployment falls to 7%, which would mean the Bank abandoning its forward guidance on interest rates.

But some economists warn about getting too fixated on the 7% unemployment rate. Kate Barker, a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, says unemployment could fall and wages could rise, without raising concern over inflation.

"The real question for the economy this year is not just about interest rates. It's actually about what is going to happen to productivity, if we see productivity start to recover we could see wages pick up quite a bit without any damage to inflation - so there are more things to look at other than employment," she said.

Azure Global’s vision is to be widely recognized as a reputed firm of financial business advisors, achieving real growth for ambitious companies and to become the first choice for F&A outsourcing for accountancy practices and businesses alike for more info visit our site Azure Global and join us also On Facebook