Royal Mail major shareholders to be asked if shares were too cheap

Commons business committee plans to write to large investors as part of bid to find out if state-owned postal service was undervalued

Royal Mail investors who bought large stakes in the postal service following its £3.3bn privatisation last month are to be asked by MPs why they have staked hundreds of millions of pounds on the view that the government sold the firm on the cheap.

The news emerged after the Commons business committee investigating the Royal Mail flotation questioned the business secretary, Vince Cable, and his ministerial colleague Michael Fallon how the offer was valued, prompting an assertion from Cable that there was no need for an independent inquiry into the process.

Committee chairman Adrian Bailey said he will be writing to the The Children's Investment Fund (TCI) and GIC, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, which have built up their Royal Mail stakes since its listing to more than 6% and 4%, respectively – having decided the shares would rise far above their 330p flotation price.

He said: "Yes, we might well want to [write to major new shareholders to ask why they value Royal Mail so highly]. We are reviewing the transcript [of evidence] to identify areas to follow up."

The committee has been investigating whether the taxpayer has been shortchanged by the Royal Mail flotation, in which 60% of the shares were sold to outside investors last month. The share price has since soared by about 70%, prompting criticisms that the government could have demanded a higher price. The Bow Group, a thinktank led by former prime minister Sir John Major, has called for an independent inquiry into the privatisation.

When asked if he thought an inquiry was required, Cable replied: "Absolutely not. We think this is a good process for the taxpayer."

He added that the valuation was only one criteria in deciding whether or not the taxpayer had received value for money, as the company could have withered – and its services put at risk – without access to private capital to invest in its future.

"Bearing in mind the set of objectives which we set at the very beginning ... the value for money is partly dependent on the offer price, it's partly dependent on the continuing value of the state's [30%] share, and it's partly dependent on what happens to the company. If the company isn't able to invest successfully [in its business], you could be left with a serious casualty. When we take all those things together, I think the conclusion will be, when people have settled down, that this has been a very professional well-managed and successful operation."

Royal Mail floated at 330p a share when the government sold 600m shares last month. Once the shares began trading on the stock exchange, they quickly soared. The shares were up 5% on Wednesday afternoon following the group's first results statement as a public company, changing hands at around 563p.

Also being questioned alongside Cable and Fallon were Mark Russell, the chief executive of Shareholder Executive which holds state stakes in businesses, and William Rucker, the chief executive of the government's main financial adviser, Lazard.

Russell said the government had been taken by surprise by the surge in the share price, telling the committee: "We did not anticipate the share price to move to the extent that it did."

He added, however, it had been anticipated that the shares would rise following privatisation, which was part of the reason why the government had retained a 30% Royal Mail stake. Typically, the City hopes the shares rise by around 10% on the first few days of trading following a flotation.

Bailey also asked the witnesses if it was predictable that Royal Mail shares would surge so strongly, with the offer was 20 times oversubscribed by investors.

Lazard's Rucker claimed not: "A lot of the orders [for shares] that go into the books ... there is a heavy element of gaming. The three biggest orders were $1bn each. That would have represented 20% of the company. Those institutions had no expectations of ever receiving anything like that quantity of the stock."

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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Royal Mail's first-class returns fail to silence critics

On Friday many people could see the value of their stake instantly rocket. While 96% of postal workers are against it, for the government – and City investors – it offers a huge windfall

A half millennium of history will end on Friday when the government goes where even Margaret Thatcher dared not tread and privatises Royal Mail.

In between divorcing and beheading wives, Henry VIII appointed Brian Tuke to the newly created role of "Master of the Posts" in 1516. The job was a forerunner to Postmaster General and the service – which for its first 119 years was reserved for royals to send letters between palaces – became Royal Mail.

The postal service, the world's oldest, has remained in public ownership ever since, despite attempts by both the Tories' Lord Heseltine and Labour's Lord Mandelson to flog it and swell the nation's coffers.

Thatcher, who sold off British Gas, British Airways, British Telecom and dozens of other state-owned institutions in the 1980s, drew the line at Royal Mail, saying famously that she was "not prepared to have the Queen's head privatised".

But on 7am on Friday up to 70% of Royal Mail will be sold to investors and listed on the London Stock Exchange – swelling Treasury coffers by about £2bn, though that will no more than dent the £115.7bn deficit the government ran up on the public finances last year.

The government is pressing ahead with the sale despite fierce opposition from the public, politicians of all hues and Royal Mail's 150,000 postmen and women, who are planning days of debilitating strike action in protest.

Vince Cable and Michael Fallon, the business secretary and business minister in charge of the sale, say that in these straitened economic times Royal Mail can no longer be owned by the state as it has to compete with schools and hospitals for much-need investment. Royal Mail needs to borrow hundreds of millions of pounds to prepare for a future delivering parcels ordered online from the likes of Amazon and Asos, rather than cards and letters that are dying out in favour of emails and messages on Facebook or Twitter. Letter traffic has dropped by a quarter over the past five years to just 58m items a day.

"It cannot be right for Royal Mail to come cap-in-hand to ministers each time it wants to invest and innovate," Cable said. "The public will always want government to invest in schools and hospitals ahead of Royal Mail."

Fallon has said that if Royal Mail were to remain in state hands "every £1 it borrows is another £1 on the national debt. That means growing the national debt. No responsible party could propose that in the current environment, or for that matter in any environment, when Royal Mail – run on a fully commercial basis – has the capacity to be cash-generative, profitable and perfectly able to raise the capital it needs from the private sector."

After years of heavy losses – £320m in 2010 and £258m in 2011 – Royal Mail is now steadily increasing its profits. In the latest accounts available, for the six months to September 2012, it made operating profits of £144m compared with £12m a year earlier, while sales remained roughly flat at £4.4bn.

Royal Mail has also been given greater freedom to increase the price of stamps – over the past five years the price of a first-class stamp has risen from 41p to 60p – and is allowed to make a "reasonable commercial return" (a margin of 5-10%) on its universal service obligation to deliver to every address in the country six days a week, which the government promises will be maintained for the foreseeable future, no matter who owns the company.

Royal Mail has also been freed of its £12bn pension fund deficit by transferring the scheme from the company to the state, at a cost of £1.3bn in the first year alone.

City experts reckon these changes outweigh the threat of strike action and any political and public backlash and will make Royal Mail very attractive both to big banks and investment firms as well as the public, who are able to buy its shares as long as they can stump up a minimum of £750.

Gert Zonneveld, managing director of stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said he expects the flotation to be a "raging success", with investors trying to buy up to 10 times as many shares as are available, But most of the demand, he said, is down to the "exceptionally attractive" value the government has placed on the shares. It has said they will be priced between 260p and 330p, giving the company a maximum market value of £3.3bn.

Zonneveld reckons the government's range represents an "exceptionally good entry level for investors", and said the shares should have been priced at up to 450p.

"I'm so convinced they [the government] got it wrong," Zonneveld said. "I think they're more than £1bn too low [in their valuation of the company]."

By comparing Royal Mail's profits and revenues to that of other listed postal services in other countries, Zonneveld thinks the company should be valued between £3.7bn and £4.5bn.

Under his valuation, Royal Mail would join the FTSE 100 list of Britain's biggest companies, which means tracker funds would be forced to buy the stock, sending demand – and the price – even higher. "I think this is going to be massively oversubscribed," he said. "Institutional investors who want £10m will increase their order to £50m because they know their orders will be scaled back."

He predicts that the share price could rise by 30% on the first day of trading on Friday. It means the government could lose out on about an extra £500m if it had priced the shares at 450p. The government has said it will not increase the price range above 330p no matter how high the demand for the shares.

The expected jump in the share price could go some way to placating Royal Mail's 150,000 employees, who are in the midst of voting for nationwide strike action, the first since 2009, which cannot take place until 23 October.

The government is giving employees 10% of the shares for free. If the shares at the top end of the government's 330p estimate,each employee will own shares worth £2,200 on Friday morning. If they perform as Zonneveld predicts they could be worth £2,860 by Friday afternoon.

But even the prospect of nearly £3,000 is not enough to win over most postmen and women. The Communication Workers Union, which represents 115,000 Royal Mail staff, says that 96% of employees are adamant in their opposition to the sell-off.

"I don't want the money," Theodore Mbungu, 56, said as he trudged about his north London round last week. "I want my job to stay the same. When it's private we will be paid less and have to work harder. What other job is there where you talk to people every day and they are happy and smiling and excited to see you?

"In what other job can you do your work and then go straight home, even though you're still being paid? I love being a postman. It's the best job in this country, but I know once the men in the City get their hands on it, it will never be the same again."

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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Royal Mail privatisation will not affect postal delivery – Vince Cable

Business secretary says postal service sell-off will not threaten universal service obligation to deliver to 29m UK homes

The Royal Mail's duty to deliver to all 29m homes in the UK will survive privatisation, the government has said, as it unveiled plans for the most significant state sell-off since the railways in the 1990s .

The pledge came as business secretary Vince Cable announced long-awaited plans to float the Royal Mail on the London Stock Exchange this year, and confirmed that postmen and women would be entitled to free shares in the business.

Critics argued that the privatisation of an institution first opened to the public 378 years ago would mean post office closures, the erosion of six-day delivery in rural areas and worse pay and conditions for postal workers. Speaking in the House of Commons, Cable said privatisation was "an irreversible course" that would secure the future of Royal Mail in the face of competition.

"The government's decision on the sale is practical, it is logical, it is a commercial decision designed to put Royal Mail's future on a long-term sustainable business. It is consistent with developments elsewhere in Europe where privatised operators in Austria, Germany and Belgium produce profit margins far higher than the Royal Mail but have continued to provide high-quality and expanding services," he said. "Now the time has come for government to step back from Royal Mail, and allow its management to focus wholeheartedly on growing the business."

The Communication Workers Union (CWU), which represents two-thirds of the Royal Mail's 150,000 workforce, vowed to fight the sell-off and accused the government of ignoring the views of the public.

The Labour party, which attempted to part-privatise the service in 2009, accused ministers of pushing ahead with the sale to dig the chancellor out of a financial hole caused by a rise in government borrowing. Market analysts expect Royal Mail will be valued at £3bn when it floats later this year. The public will be able to apply for shares, although Royal Mail workers will be allowed first in the queue if they want extra shares on top of the 10% share guaranteed to them.

Cable said the "overarching objective" of privatisation was to secure the universal service obligation that requires mail deliveries to any UK home six days a week, which has been threatened by a slump in profits in the wake of a 25% decline in letters over the last decade.

But Dave Ward, the CWU's deputy general secretary, said the business secretary was "off the pace" on the economic reality of the six-day universal service, which he predicted would not survive in rural areas and remote regions under privatisation.

Warning that privately-owned companies will seek a relaxation of the obligation if they offer their own doorstep delivery services around the UK, he said: "We are talking about an economic reality. These [delivery] companies will lobby against the six-day service. It simply will not make the money to secure their investment."

The national network of 11,780 Post Offices, a separate company from Royal Mail, will remain in public hands, a promise that failed to reassure the National Federation of SubPostmasters', who accused the government of taking "a reckless gamble" with the network that would lead to post office closures.

"If privatisation goes ahead, we have very real fears that the Royal Mail will rip up its the current agreement with Post Office Ltd [to provide Royal Mail products and services] in an aggressive bid to maximise profits for its shareholders," said NFSP general secretary George Thomson.

Chuka Umunna, shadow business minister, said the recent doubling in profits at Royal Mail to £403m also called into question the assumptions behind the "fire sale". "They now want to privatise the profits at the time it is making money. How can this policy make sense?"

Cable pledged that private ownership would not trigger any change in post office workers' terms and conditions, while the Royal Mail promised "a legally-binding and enforceable contract with the CWU" to enshrine these rights.

Dave Ward at the CWU said Cable's guarantees "are not worth the paper they are written on", while existing agreements with were "completely inadequate". Strike action was inevitable, he said.But the government hopes that giving away shares to employees – the largest worker share offer in nearly 30 years – will soften opposition to the sale. Under the scheme, eligible employees would be entitled to free shares, but would be unable to sell them for at least three years.

Moya Greene, Royal Mail's chief executive, who has been courting potential investors in the UK, North America and continental Europe, said the sale would give employees "a meaningful stake in the company" and the public "the opportunity to invest in a great British institution".

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Vince Cable issues his Commons statement on the Royal Mail privatisation plans. He said this was 'an irreversible course' that would secure the future of Royal Mail in the face of rising competition

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Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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