Bank of England could raise interest rates next spring, says MPC member

MPC member Ian McCafferty says market expectations rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 are 'not unreasonable'

A Bank of England policymaker has reinforced expectations that the first rise in interest rates will come as soon as next spring, in remarks that pushed up the pound.

Ian McCafferty, a member of the monetary policy committee, said that market expectations that the Bank of England will start to raise rates in the second quarter of 2015 are "not unreasonable". He told news agency Reuters in an interview that wage deals in coming months would be "quite critical" as policymakers watch for inflation risks.

Under governor Mark Carney, earlier this month the Bank overhauled its forward guidance policy on when rates would rise from their record low of 0.5%. At the time it said a view in markets that rates could rise in the second quarter of 2015 was consistent with its goal of keeping inflation close to the government-set 2% target. McCafferty told Reuters: "In that sense, you'd have to say that that market curve is not unreasonable.

"The exact timing of course is going to depend on events that have yet to unfold in terms of how the recovery proceeds over the course of the next six to 12 months or so."

Following his remarks being published, the pound rose to session highs against the dollar and euro.

McCafferty, a former chief economic adviser to business group CBI, said he was watching for pressures on inflation from pay deals negotiated in coming months. After years above its target inflation has now fallen below 2%, to stand at 1.9% in January.

"I suppose my view would be if anything, the risk I am watching for, because I think it fits with our mandate, is were we to see inflation risks or inflation behaviour start to develop," he said. "At the moment, that seems to be well under control.

"If we did see some inflationary pressure – more than we currently expect in our central case – that would if anything, I suspect, lead the committee to consider slightly earlier rate rises."

The policymaker said another factor to watch was the strength of the pound, which last week strengthened to a four-year high against the dollar.

"Were it to continue to rise, I would get more worried," McCafferty said, and indicated further strengthening could delay a rate hike.

"It's clearly a consideration in terms of total monetary conditions in the economy so we would need to take it into account when determining what the appropriate monetary stance would be going forward," he said.

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UK jobless falling faster than thought, to hit target early - Reuters poll

British unemployment is falling faster than previously thought and will reach the Bank of England's 7 percent threshold for considering a rate hike well before the central bank envisages, a Reuters poll found.

The poll of 50 economists, taken this week, suggests it will fall steadily in the coming quarters and reach 7 percent early next year. A December poll had pointed to this happening in the second quarter of 2015 and a November poll even later.

"Recent sharp falls in unemployment will probably continue over the next few months. It will still take a year or so to reach 7 percent but growth in the workforce should remain strong," said Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics.

The BoE has pledged not to discuss hiking interest rates from their record low of 0.5 percent until the goal is met.

Britain's economic recovery picked up pace last year and some economists say the Bank will lower its target and hold borrowing costs low until the country's turnaround broadens out.

The bank's actions will also be closely watched by the country's politicians, who are beginning to gear up for an election in May 2015 which could hinge on the economy.

Thirteen of 35 economists in the poll expect a lowering of the threshold, probably to 6.5 percent, a similar proportion to that in a Reuters poll taken earlier this month ahead of the Bank's January policy meeting when it left policy unchanged.

"The BoE needs to review whether the 7 percent unemployment threshold is appropriate for the use of forward guidance, especially as the unemployment rate is quickly approaching 7 percent," said Azad Zangana at Schroders.

"Hitting the threshold will give the impression that the BoE will then consider raising interest rates, which we think it has no intention of doing in the near term."

Some pressure on the Bank has eased - data on Tuesday showed inflation had fallen to its 2.0 percent target for the first time in four years during December, but may nudge up again as utility and transport price rises are factored in.

With growth picking up and unemployment falling, economists are now narrowly predicting a rate hike in the second quarter of 2015, albeit one of only 25 basis points. The is the first time in nearly two years that the Reuters poll has signalled a tightening of monetary policy.

Britain's economy is still 2 percent smaller than before the financial crisis began but its growth rate is far outstripping the neighbouring euro zone, its main trading partner.

The economy is expected to grow 0.6 percent per quarter through to the middle of next year, the end of the forecast horizon and the highest forecasts to date, compared to just 0.2-0.4 percent in the common currency bloc.

Recovery in the now 18-member union remains fragile, with unemployment running at a record high and an increasing threat of deflation.

"There are still significant risks from any renewed flare-up in the euro zone crisis," said John Hawksworth, chief UK economist at PwC.

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Bank of England holds cards close to chest on guidance options

 The Bank of England kept investors guessing on Thursday as to whether it might be considering a change to its pledge to keep interest rates on hold as Britain's economic recovery picks up.

It also did not take the unusual step - but one which some investors had considered possible - of issuing a statement to address the speed at which Britain's unemployment rate is falling towards its threshold for considering a rate hike.

"No guidance on guidance yet," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note to clients. He said details of discussions among the BoE's policymakers on their options for changing guidance were likely to appear when minutes of this week's meeting are published on January 22.

Britain moved from being a laggard to a leader in terms of growth among the world's biggest economies last year.

Its economy is expanding by more than 3 percent in annualised terms although there are concerns the recovery could prove unsustainable, especially as wage growth remains weak.

The BoE said in August it will not think about raising rates until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Since then unemployment has come down much faster than the Bank expected, raising questions about how long it can hold off on raising rates.

But inflation has also fallen to within a whisker of its 2 percent target, reducing the pressure on the BoE.

After its two-day meeting, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates at 0.5 percent, as expected by all the economists who took part in a Reuters poll.

It also left its bond-buying programme unchanged at 375 billion pounds.

The turnaround in Britain's economy contrasts with the situation in the euro zone, its main trading partner, where the European Central Bank is expected to use a news conference on Thursday to remind investors it could ease policy further.

The pace of Britain's recovery has helped the pound to strengthen by 5 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the dollar since the middle of last year.

Sterling strengthened briefly against the dollar after the MPC's announcement of no change in policy. British government bond prices rose slightly.

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Loans to business getting cheaper and more readily available, Bank says

Availability of credit to corporate sector increased significantly in fourth quarter of 2013, according to Bank of England

Hopes of an end to the prolonged fall in business lending were boosted on Wednesday when the Bank of England announced that loans were becoming cheaper and more readily available to the UK corporate sector.

In a regular update, Threadneedle Street said there were signs that credit conditions had eased for companies towards the end of last year.

"The overall availability of credit to the corporate sector increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to lenders, and a further increase was expected in the first quarter of 2014," the Bank said. "Lenders reported that the availability of credit had increased for small businesses and large private non-financial corporations."

It added that the final three months of last year had also seen more credit become available for mortgages, particularly on homes with high loan-to-value ratios. A "significant" further increase in availability is expected in the first quarter of 2014.

The Bank said demand for credit remained patchy. Households and medium-sized businesses were taking advantage of the easier conditions, but demand from small businesses was flat and there was a slight increase in demand from big companies.

Threadneedle Street also reported lower interest rates for borrowers as measured by the spread between the official bank rate of 0.5% and the loan rates charged to individuals and businesses.

"Spreads on corporate lending fell in the fourth quarter, with significant reductions reported for medium-sized companies and large private non-financial corporations (PNFCs), and a slight reduction reported for small businesses. Over the next three months, lenders expected spreads to tighten further for medium-sized companies and large PNFCs, and to be little changed for small businesses."

Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, said: "Steady improvements in credit conditions are continuing and the Bank's survey brings further signs that finance providers are making more credit available and risk appetite is increasing. However, the issue of cost is still lingering for smaller businesses. With a turnaround in investment on the cards for this year we will also need to see a real pick-up in net lending to businesses and fewer companies saying they have been discouraged from accessing external finance."

Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, said the pick-up in credit availability to companies was encouraging but had yet to translate into increased corporate lending.

"Indeed, latest data from the Bank of England shows that net lending to non-financial companies fell by £4.7bn in November. This was the sharpest drop since the series started in April 2011. Net lending had previously fallen by £1.1bn on October following a rare rise of £714m in September."

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UK construction sector growth remains strong, survey says

Growth in the UK's construction sector remained strong in December, a survey suggests, with work on commercial projects seeing a sharp rise.

The latest Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector recorded a level of 62.1 last month.

While this was below November's six-year high of 62.6, it was still well above the 50 level that marks the divide between growth and contraction.

On Thursday, the PMI manufacturing survey also showed strong growth.

Wider recovery

Markit said the latest survey indicated that the construction industry had now seen output grow for eight months in row.

House building remains the fastest growing area of construction last month, although the pace of growth has slowed slightly from November.

However, Markit said that the construction sector was now seeing a broader recovery, with commercial building work rising at the fastest pace since August 2007.

The industry has also seen jobs increase for seven months in a row.

"The improving UK economic outlook is helping boost private sector spending patterns, meaning that the construction recovery has started to broaden out from housing demand and infrastructure projects to include strong growth in commercial building work," said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit.

The survey is further evidence that the UK's economic recovery is continuing.

On Thursday, Markit said that its PMI survey for manufacturing in December showed the sector's recovery remained "on track". The PMI survey for the services sector is due to be released on Monday.

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UK manufacturing tipped for strongest growth in Europe

EEF predicts sector will grow 2.7% this year, compared with 1.6% in Germany and 0.7% in France

Britain's manufacturers will enjoy faster growth than those in Germany or any other western European economy this year from rising demand at home and abroad, according to a report.

In its annual survey of companies, manufacturers' organisation EEF found 70% of firms forecast an improvement in the economy in 2014, while just 5% thought conditions would deteriorate. The balance of 65% compares with the sombre outlook at the same time last year when the reading was just 7%.

The balance expecting a good year for manufacturing is 52% – up from zero this time last year.

"Manufacturers are telling us they expect to make a greater contribution to growth, investment and jobs this year," said EEF's chief executive Terry Scuoler.

The EEF, along with the thinktank Oxford Economics, has forecast that the British manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10% of the economy, will grow 2.7% this year. That puts it ahead of all other western European countries in the thinktank's forecasts. German manufacturing is expected to pick up by 1.6% with France at just 0.7%, level with Spain and just of Greece at 0.4%.

Austria and Belgium are also expected to pick up strongly with growth of 2.4%

Manufacturers' caution at the start of last year now appears justified however with the sector now forecast by the EEF to have contracted 0.1% during 2013. The sector is still some 9% below its pre-recession level, said the group's chief economist Lee Hopley. "We are not yet where we want to be," she said. "There is still lots to do."

But the evidence from the sector was more positive for this year, including signs the pick-up in momentum was broad-based, she said.

"The sectoral difference is not as stark as a year ago. We were quite reliant on the transport sector to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the manufacturing sector over 2013... This year it should be more evenly spread," she said.

But the manufacturers' group also warned of risks from many sides as the sector strives to make up for the sharp contraction in recent years. The survey of 200 senior executives said uncertainty had become the "new normal" after the shocks of recent years when demand dwindled in the UK's key export market, the eurozone.

For the year ahead they are worrying about energy prices, being held back by the prolonged hollowing out of the UK's supply base and pressure for pay rises as skills shortages continue to bite.

The survey also suggested business investment will finally start to grow again this year.

Some 60% of companies said they planned to invest moderately or significantly in the UK. Signs that large companies are ready to start spending some of the cash piles they have been sitting on while smaller firms are prepared to borrow to expand reflect a brighter outlook for sales. Two-thirds of companies expect domestic sales to increase and, 55% of companies expect their exports to increase. The Middle East stands out as an increasingly favoured market for UK manufacturers while they are also more upbeat about the eurozone.

Despite the generally positive outlook painted by the survey and other recent indicators from the sector, the EEF said three quarters of manufacturers believe "economic uncertainty is the new norm".

Manufacturers' general optimism was echoed in a separate report suggesting Britain's biggest companies plan to increase investment and hire more workers in 2014.

The latest poll of 122 chief financial officers by consultants Deloitte also found almost half of respondents – 49% – said Bank of England governor Mark Carney's policies had boosted confidence in the UK's economic outlook. Just 3% said confidence had been dented and the rest saw no effect.

Companies' appetite for risk was the highest since the quarterly survey started six years ago and 70% of those surveyed said they expect businesses to increase hiring in 2014.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said the survey showed finance chief were starting 2014 "in buoyant mood with a focus on expansion, investment and hiring.". This bodes well for the broad-based recovery policymakers hope to see in 2014."

"Large corporates have good access to capital and CFOs are more positive about financing their business with equity and bonds than at any time in the last six years. But in a sign that banks are lending once again CFOs rate bank lending as the most attractive form of finance for their business for the first time since 2008."

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Britons less inclined to pay down mortgage debt

Britons were less inclined to use savings to pay down mortgage debt in the third quarter, data showed on Monday, adding to signs of improving consumer confidence as house prices rise and the job market recovers.Homeowners put 10.4 billion pounds of equity into their homes in the quarter, the Bank of England figures showed - more than two billion pounds less than in the previous quarter and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009.Britons have paid down their mortgages on a net basis for the past four years, reversing the trend towards higher debt levels that dominated from late 1999 until the financial crisis.

Borrowing against the rising value of property was a key driver of the consumer boom of the last decade, and while the Bank of England may welcome a return of that "feelgood" factor, it will be wary of a recovery that is heavily reliant on household spending and cheap credit.

Data earlier this month showed households saved just 5.4 percent of their disposable income in the third quarter, down from 6.2 percent in the second. Household spending, meanwhile, rose an annual 2.5 percent, faster than growth in the economy overall.

Keeping property price gains in check without crimping growth in the rest of the economy is shaping up to be the biggest challenge facing the central bank in 2014.

While inflation in the broader economy has come within a whisker of the BoE's 2 percent target, house prices are rising six times as fast in the capital and almost four times as fast nationwide.

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Pay to perk up in 2014 as economy recovers-CBI

(Reuters) - More British firms expect wages to rise in line with inflation next year than at any time since the 2008-2009 recession, a survey conducted by a leading organisation of employers showed on Tuesday.The Confederation of British Industry CBI.L said 42 percent of firms believed salaries would grow in line with the Retail Price Index (RPI), the highest proportion since 2009.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in November that wage increases in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI.L) were likely to come between mid-2014 and the end of 2016.The RPI usually gives a higher inflation figure than CPI - it was at 2.6 percent in the 12 months to October - and is generally used as a basis for private-sector pay deals, although wages have lagged behind in recent years.

"Pay, as we see today, is returning with growth," said Neil Carberry, director for employment at the CBI. Employers remain cautious about pay increases: 39 percent of firms said they planned a pay increase below RPI and only seven percent would raise pay by more than the index.The CBI said companies expecting pay freezes next year fell to a four-year low of 8 percent, down from 16 percent in 2012. In 2009, more than half of firms planned pay freezes as they grappled with the recession.

The report showed 51 percent of companies expected to create jobs over the coming year and only 12 percent thought they would cut the size of their workforce. Jobs for permanent staff also grew more quickly, with a net increase of 18 percent against a rise of 14 percent in temporary positions.

(Reporting by Freya Berry; editing by William Schomberg, Larry King)

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Bank of England switches to plastic pound notes with Churchill fiver

Introduction of polymer £5 note in 2016 and Jane Austen £10 note in 2017 will end 320 years of paper money

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has formally announced that Britain will switch to using plastic banknotes in 2016, ending 320 years of paper money.

After a public consultation in which 87% of the 13,000 respondents backed the new-style currency, the Bank said it would introduce "polymer" notes, as it prefers to call them, in two years' time, starting with the new £5 note featuring Winston Churchill in 2016 and the Jane Austen £10 a year later.

Speaking at a press conference in the Bank's Threadneedle Street headquarters, Carney said: "Our polymer notes will combine the best of progress and tradition. They will be more secure from counterfeiting and more resistant to damage while celebrating the history and tradition that is important both to the Bank and the nation as a whole."

The move follows Carney's native Canada, where plastic notes are being rolled out, and Australia, where they have been in circulation for more than two decades.

Carney launched a public consultation on polymer banknotes, seen as cleaner and more durable, shortly after arriving at the Bank this summer. However, the Bank's notes division has been considering plastic money for several years.

Bank officials have been touring shopping centres and business groups around the country with prototype notes to canvas public opinion.

The Bank has promoted its polymer notes, featuring a see-through window and other new security features, as less threadbare and tougher to counterfeit.

It has sought to quell concerns about the environmental impact of printing on plastic by suggesting they can last up to two-and-a-half times longer than the cotton-paper notes in circulation at the moment. The durability will also compensate for the higher production costs and save an estimated £100m, the Bank claims.

Its laboratory tests showed polymer banknotes only begin to shrink and melt at 120C, so they would fare better in washing machines but could be damaged by a hot iron.

Carney has also announced that the Bank will follow new procedures when selecting the historical characters to appear on future notes, to avoid the furore it faced earlier this year, when the announcement of the Churchill £5 note appeared to suggest that no women – other than the Queen – would feature on any denomination.

A new advisory committee, with a majority of independent members, will now suggest a theme – such as scientific achievement – and the public will be invited to suggest specific figures for inclusion. However, the governor will retain the final decision over which person is featured.

"These changes will ensure that the characters on our banknotes are fully representative of the history and diversity of this great nation, while having the necessary public respect and legitimacy."

The move is the latest in a long line of changes for banknotes, first issued in return for deposits by the Bank when it was first established in 1694 to raise money for William III's war against France.

Colour £5 notes replaced white ones in the 1950s; the first portrayal of a monarch came in 1960, when the Queen appeared on a new £1 note; and the introduction of historical figures such as William Shakespeare started in the 1970s.

As part of the preparation for this latest change, banknote officials have already been working with retailers and the operators of vending machines and cashpoints.

Link, which runs the UK cash machine network, said its machines would need new cassettes to hold the plastic notes, because they will be smaller, and not because of the change in material.

The 15% reduction in size for Churchill notes compared with the current Elizabeth Fry fiver brings English notes into line with sizes in other countries. But they will remain larger than existing euro notes and the different denominations of sterling will retain tiered sizes to help blind people differentiate between them.

The Bank concedes no note is counterfeit-proof but says copying the new polymer notes will be slower and more expensive.

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Sterling to go plastic, Bank of England decides

New polymer banknotes to be introduced, beginning with Sir Winston Churchill £5 note in 2016

The Bank of England will announce plans on Wednesday to press ahead with switching to plastic banknotes, starting with the new Sir Winston Churchill £5 note in 2016.

The decision on polymer notes will mark the beginning of the end for 320 years of paper notes from the Bank. The move by Threadneedle Street follows Bank governor Mark Carney's native Canada, where plastic notes are being rolled out, and Australia, where they have been in circulation for more than two decades.

Carney launched a public consultation on polymer banknotes, seen as cleaner and more durable, shortly after arriving at the Bank this summer. However, the Bank's notes division has been considering plastic money for several years.

Bank officials have been touring shopping centres and business groups around the country with prototype notes to canvas public opinion and the final decision is due todayon Wednesday.

The Bank has promoted its polymer notes, featuring a see-through window and other new security features as less threadbare and tougher to counterfeit.

It has sought to quell concerns about the environmental impact of printing on plastic by suggesting they can last up to six times longer than the cotton-paper notes in circulation at the moment. The durability will also compensate for the higher production costs and save an estimated £100m, the Bank claims.

Its laboratory tests showed polymer banknotes only begin to shrink and melt at 120C, so they would fare better in washing machines but could be damaged by a hot iron.

The initial plan is to introduce polymer notes one denomination at a time, with the Churchill note in 2016 at the earliest and then the £10 note featuring Jane Austen next in 2017. The notes will continue to feature the Queen and retain their current colouring.

The move is the latest in a long line of changes for banknotes, first issued in return for deposits by the Bank when it was first established in 1694 to raise money for William III's war against France.

Colour £5 notes replaced white ones in the 1950s; the first portrayal of a monarch came in 1960, when the Queen appeared on a new £1 note; and the introduction of historical figures such as William Shakespeare started in the 1970s.

As part of the preparation for this latest change, banknote officials have already been working with retailers and the operators of vending machines and cashpoints.

Link, which runs the UK cash machine network, said its machines would need new cassettes to hold the plastic notes, because they will be smaller, and not because of the change in material. The 15% reduction in size for Churchill notes compared with the current Elizabeth Fry £5 note brings English notes into line with sizes in other countries. But they will remain larger than existing euro notes and the different denominations of sterling will retain tiered sizes to help blind people differentiate between them.

The prospect of polymer notes has raised some concerns for the visually impaired, however, as the popular practice of folding or creasing notes in different ways to identify different denominations will no longer be possible. Polymer notes can be folded but will not stay tightly folded in a particular way.

The Bank's prime task as banknote issuer is to maintain confidence in its money, and the move to polymer is expected to make life drastically more difficult for counterfeiters.

Advances in commercially available laser and inkjet printers over the past decade have helped criminals to produce fakes quickly and more cheaply.

The Bank concedes no note is counterfeit-proof but says the polymer notes will be slower and more expensive to copy.

The notes will be produced at the Bank's ultra-secure plant in Debden, Essex, by a private contractor.

The job is expected to go to either De La Rue, the existing maker of BoE notes, or Innovia, which manufactures most of the polymer notes currently in circulation around the world. The Bank has ruled out importing plastic money from China.

The British Plastics Federation welcomed the Bank's move towards polymer notes. "It's essential all the plastic banknotes are made in the UK. Why not make coins out of plastic? It will save wear and tear on our pockets," said director-general Peter Davis.

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Wage rises outpaced by inflation for fifth year running, official data shows

The average pay rise improved to 2.2% – from 1.5% a year earlier – but still failed to match inflation at 2.4%
Wage rises failed to keep pace with inflation for a fifth successive year, according to official figures that show a recovery in pay in the year to April 2013.

Average pay rises jumped to 2.2% from the previous year's total of 1.5%, but the recovery still left workers worse off after prices rose by an average 2.4%.

Much of the rise in wages was distorted by City bankers and other well-paid staff delaying salary rises and bonus payments to take advantage of the cut in the top rate of tax from 50p to 45p in the £1.

The decision of people earning more than £150,000 to wait for a change in the tax rate before taking some of their pay could account for much of the failure of average pay to recover during 2012.

The Office for National Statistics said median average annual earnings before tax for full-time employees, where workers were in the same job for at least a year, was £27,000. This was an increase of 2.1% compared with £26,500 in the year ending 5 April 2012.

Median gross annual earnings for men were £29,300, up 1.9% from 2012, and for women were £23,600, up 2.2%. But despite the higher pay rises for women, the pay gap between women and men widened from 9.5% to 10%.

More women work in part-time jobs than men and much of the recovery in employment until the spring this year was in part-time work, probably leading to a lower gross figure. Low pay remains a feature of British working life, according to the figures.

The ONS found there were 203,000 jobs held by over-21s with pay less than the national minimum wage, in breach of low pay rules.

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Banks braced for huge EU fines over Libor rate-rigging scandal

UK's RBS believed to be among at least six banks facing record fines for manipulating European and Asian interest rates

The interest rate-rigging scandal that has damaged the reputation of the banking sector looks likely to be reignited as Brussels is expected to impose multimillion-pound fines on a number of major firms for manipulating crucial benchmarks.

The action by Joaquín Almunia, the EU competition commissioner, will pile further pressure on Royal Bank of Scotland, the bailed-out bank already dealing with the fallout from a major systems meltdownthat left millions of customers without access to cash and allegations – which it denies – of mistreating its small business customers.

The 81% taxpayer-owned bank is reported to be among at least six major players in the financial markets, including Deutsche Bank in Germany and Citigroup in the US, caught up in the cartel investigation. The EU is said to be ready to impose record-breaking fines for alleged collusion for rigging key benchmark rates.

Brussels is thought to have focused on yen Libor, based on Japanese interest rates and priced out of London; Euribor, the Brussels equivalent to Libor; and the Tokyo rate known as Tibor. Almunia has been in discussions with banks for weeks and the resulting penalty is expected to surpass the record €1.5bn (£1.24bn) imposed on a cartel.

Each cartel could face combined fines of as much as €800m, although it was unclear on Tuesday nightwhat the exact penalties would be and how the sums would be divided. Penaltiesfor breaches of antitrust rules can theoretically be as much as 10% of turnover.

The fines are the latest to be levied on banks and financial firms for manipulating key benchmark rates. Five firms have already been fined by market regulators on both sides of Atlantic in an ongoing investigation into the manpulation of the rates, used to set interest rates on loans granted around the world.

Barclays was fined £290m in June 2012 in a move that led to the resignation of its chairman, Sir Marcus Agius, chief executive, Bob Diamond, and other senior managers. Other banks who have since been fined by US or UK regulators RBS, UBS of Switzerland and the Dutch bank Rabobank. The money broker Icap has also been fined and the FCA's investigations are ongoing.

The Libor investigation has sparked interest in a number of other benchmarks used to price financial products, particularly the foreign exchange markets, which are now being investigated by a number of regulators around the world, including the UK's Financial Conduct Authority.

Reuters reported that UBS had alerted the European Commission to the yen interest rate manipulation and would not be penalised. The Financial Times said Barclays would avoid a fine for Euribor rigging for similar reasons.

Between six and ten banks are reported to befacing fines, including Citigroup, which would be the first US bank to become embroiled in such high-profile penalties for manipulation of key rates.

Deutsche Bank and RBS will be penalised for rigging the benchmark eurozone interest rates known as Euribor. French bank Société Générale is also part of the group facing sanctions for alleged Euribor rigging, according to Reuters.

The news agency said HSBC and the French bank Crédit Agricole had not reached a settlement, while the FT said the US bank JPMorgan had also failed to do. They may face fines later.

Reuters said Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, RBS, JPMorgan and Citigroup declined to comment and HSBC and Crédit Agricole were not immediately available to comment.

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UK manufacturing recovery in full swing as new orders boom

PMI rose to 58.4 in November, with new orders at a near-20 year high and thousands of new staff taken on last month

Manufacturers enjoyed a jump in demand that pushed growth to its fastest rate for more than two years and saw the sector take on thousands of new staff last month.

New orders were the strongest for almost 20 years and job creation accelerated, according to the Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI survey. Encouragingly for the government's push to rebalance the economy, export orders also picked up.

The closely watched report comes as a timely boost to Chancellor George Osborne as he prepares to present his autumn statement plans for growth, spending and taxes on Thursday.

The headline activity index rose to 58.4 in November from an upwardly revised 56.5 in October. That was its eighth month above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction and was well ahead of the consensus forecast for 56 in a Reuters poll of economists.

The news sent the pound to a five-year high against a basket of other major currencies as traders bet an accelerating UK recovery would see interest rates rising sooner than the central bank has been suggesting.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compilers Markit commented: "UK manufacturing continued to hit the high notes in November. The Manufacturing PMI struck a fresh two-and-a-half year peak as production and new orders rose at, or close to, 19-year record rates. The sector is on course to beat the 0.9% increase in output seen in the third quarter.

"Sustaining the recovery remains the key and the news here is also positive. The manufacturing expansion remains broad-based by sector, demand from the domestic market continues to surge higher and new export orders are rising at a clip close to October's 32-month high."

As activity and orders picked up, firms took on new staff at the fastest pace for more than two years.

Markit said manufacturers were creating around 5,000 jobs a month across all parts of the sector and all sizes of firms.

James Knightley, economist at ING Financial Markets said the job creation pointed to unemployment falling faster than the Bank of England is predicting. That could see interest rates rising sooner than the central bank has suggested, he said. Policymakers are waiting for unemployment to drop to 7% before they will consider raising borrowing costs from their current record low.

Kinghtley said the job creation suggested in manufacturing report "supports our view that the unemployment rate will drop below 7% late 2014/early 2015". He also highlighted a robust production reading and strong orders from the eurozone.

"Taking it all together it implies that the UK economy is looking in good shape with interest rate rises looking increasingly probable from early 2015," he added.

The survey follows forecasts from manufacturers' organisation EEF that the sector will grow faster than the wider economy next year. The group thinks the sector probably contracted by 0.1% this year but will grow 2.7% next year while UK GDP rises 2.4%. The EEF's latest survey suggested firms are more confident about investing and hiring staff over the next year but they feel the export outlook is still uncertain thanks to problems in some emerging markets and sluggish growth in the key market, the eurozone.

Economists said the manufacturing report marked a strong start to the monthly trio of PMI surveys from the three main sectors. Tuesday sees the release of the construction report while the closely watched survey from Britain's dominant services sector on Wednesday is expected to show that strong growth continued in November.

"If [the manufacturing PMI] is followed by robust construction and, especially services, surveys, it will look very likely that GDP growth in the fourth quarter could at least match the 0.8% quarter-on-quarter expansion seen in the third quarter," said Howard Archer, at IHS Global Insight.

"Much will depend on how well consumer spending performs in the fourth quarter, as there have been some signs that consumers have taken a breather after spending at a robust pace in the third quarter."

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