IMF piles pressure on US to reconcile differences and prevent debt default

Shares and oil prices rise in hope of six-week extension as OECD warns US deadlock threatens world economy

Shares and oil prices rose strongly on Thursday amid hopes that policymakers in Washington were buckling under the global pressure for them to settle their differences and prevent a US debt default.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) both issued sharply worded warnings to Republicans and Democrats amid signs that America's Asian creditors were becoming alarmed at the potential consequences of the impasse.

Reports in Washington that the Republicans would agree to a six-week extension of the debt ceiling from next week's 17 October deadline led to a 323-point rise in the Dow Jones average. Brent crude was up by $2 a barrel and the FTSE rose by 92 points as the Republican leader in the House of Representatives John Boehner said it was time for meaningful talks with President Barack Obama.

After discussions with Republican leaders on Thursday night, the White House said Obama had held a "good meeting" but that they failed to reach an agreement to end the budget crisis despite earlier hopes that a deal may be in sight. Ninety-minute discussions between Obama and Boehner broke up with little apparent progress or press announcement, although there was a marked change in tone on both sides that suggested a deal may still be close.

Speculation about a deal had emerged after Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, said there would be chaos if the US defaulted – a message rammed home by IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and the OECD's secretary general Ángel Gurría.

Lagarde said there would be very dangerous consequences for the US economy and elsewhere if the default was not prevented.

She distanced herself from the infighting in Washington, noting: "The IMF does not make recommendations about how, politically, this can be resolved. We don't take a political view. We just look at the economic consequences.

"When it affects the largest economy in the world, we are bound not only to look at the immediate domestic consequences but at what happens elsewhere, so that we can have a dialogue with our members to help them prepare.

"I hope we will be able to look back in a few weeks and say what a waste of time that was. But we have to look at the risks no matter how unlikely they are to materialise."

Lagarde said there were two channels through which a debt default in the US would spread to the rest of the world. "One would be the trade channel, caused by a reduction in economic activity in the US from the third quarter onwards.

"The second would be the financial channel – the result of uncertainty and material issues. We are likely to see volatility, uncertainty and consequences for the rest of the world."

Lagarde said some of the warning signs of stress in financial markets – such as the VIX index of volatility and the price of insuring financial instruments – were flashing. "It's not helping the US to have this uncertainty and protracted way of dealing with fiscal and debt issues."

Gurría said: "The current political deadlock in the US is needlessly putting at risk the stability and growth not only of the US but also the world economy."

He added there was a risk that the west could be plunged back into recession by a default. "If the debt ceiling is not raised – or, better still, abolished – our calculations suggest that the OECD region as a whole will be pushed back into recession next year, and emerging economies will experience a sharp slowdown. The magnitude of further possible negative feedback effects can only be guessed at."

The ongoing political impasse in Washington has sparked fears the US could default on repayments of its bonds, prompting banks and clearing houses to take preventative measures against such an unprecedented event.

In Hong Kong, the body which stands behind trades on the Hong Kong futures and options exchanges has concluded that some US Treasury bonds posted as collateral are more risky than in the past.

The US government needs to be able raise the nation's $16.7tn (£10.5tn) debt ceiling on 17 October otherwise it might not be able to make payments on bonds it has issued in the past, unleashing turmoil in the financial markets. About $120bn of debt needs to be repaid that day with another $200bn before the end of the month.

"Participants should make necessary funding arrangements to cover any shortfall to their margin requirements resulting from the increase in the US Treasuries haircut [discount]," the clearing house, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, said.Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist, at Capital Economics said: "This is uncharted territory. Depending on the scale of default and the response of policymakers, regulators and the ratings agencies, substantial financial market dislocation could follow."

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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Christine Lagarde tells US that debt crisis threatens world economy

IMF chief says US politicians must overcome shutdown and raise US debt ceiling before 17 October deadline

Shares in New York fell sharply on Thursday after the US Treasury warned that the budget fight between Republicans and Democrats in Washington risked plunging the world's biggest economy into its worst slump since the Great Depression.

President Barack Obama turned up the pressure on Republicans on Capitol Hill after the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund joined senior Wall Street figures in urging a deal well ahead of the deadline for raising America's debt ceiling on 17 October.

"A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic," the Treasury reported.

"Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse."

The recession of five years ago was the most severe the US has suffered and the economy has recovered only slowly from the damage caused by the financial crash. A health check of the service sector showed a marked slowdown in activity even before large parts of the federal government were shut down as a result of the failure to agree a budget deal.

Obama accused the Tea Party wing of the Republicans of being "extremists" who were "demanding a ransom for doing their jobs". The president added: "Congress has to pass a budget that funds our government with no partisan strings attached."

Heightened anxiety in the financial markets was reflected in an early 170 point fall in the Dow Jones industrial average and a rise in interest rates for one-month US Treasury bonds.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, urged America's politicians to settle their differences before the dispute harmed the entire global economy.

Speaking ahead of the fund's annual meeting in Washington next week, Lagarde said it was "mission critical" that Democrats and Republicans raise the US debt ceiling before the 17 October deadline. Lagarde said the dispute was a fresh setback for a global economy that would take at least a decade to recover from the slump of 2008-09.

"I have said many times before that the US needs to "slow down and hurry up" – by that I mean less fiscal adjustment today and more tomorrow," Lagarde said. She added that the world's biggest economy needed to put its finances in order, but favoured back-loaded measures to raise revenues and limit entitlement spending such as medicare that did not jeopardise short-term growth.

"In the midst of this fiscal challenge, the ongoing political uncertainty over the budget and the debt ceiling does not help. The government shutdown is bad enough, but failure to raise the debt ceiling would be far worse, and could very seriously damage not only the US economy, but the entire global economy.

"So it is 'mission-critical' that this be resolved as soon as possible."

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has also warned of the risks from a protracted federal shutdown.

Lagarde's speech followed an appeal by senior figures on Wall Street for a budget to be passed in Washington. The IMF managing director said America's recovery was being held back by over-hasty budget cuts. "Households are in better shape, the housing sector is looking brighter, and the private sector engine is humming again. And yet, growth this year will still be too low – below 2% – due to too much fiscal adjustment. This should ease up next year, with growth about a percentage point higher."

Lagarde said: "We at the IMF are very familiar with the ebb and flow of economic cycles, with the shift from recession to recovery. Experience tells us that this process usually takes a year or two, or a bit longer if the situation is especially severe. The transitions I am talking about today are different. They will likely play out over the rest of the decade, if not longer."

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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Federal Reserve maintains bond-buying stimulus in surprise move

Markets cheered as federal open markets committee says US recovery is too fragile to cut back on $85bn-a-month stimulus

US stock markets hit record highs Wednesday as the Federal Reserve surprised investors by announcing that the economic recovery was too fragile to cut back on its massive $85bn-a-month stimulus program.

After a two-day meeting, the federal open market committee (FOMC) said it required "more evidence that progress will be sustained". The news delighted the markets which had sunk ahead of the news on fears that the Fed was preparing to "taper" the so-called quantitative easing (QE) program. Even the threat of a slight reduction in the stimulus spooked the markets in July.

But the news also underlined the precarious state of the wider economy as a row over the US's debt limit threatens a government shutdown. In a press conference Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, warned that the current row could have "very serious consequences".

Analysts had expected the Fed to announce that it was preparing to trim back QE, a huge bond-buying scheme aimed at keeping interest rates down and encouraging business investment.

Bernanke signalled in July that the scheme would be cut back and that such a move could be announced in September. But the FOMC concluded to leave the scheme intact for now.

The committee said it saw "improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions". But it added: "However, the committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases."

It would continue to closely monitor economic and financial developments in coming months and continue its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities "until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability".

Bernanke warned that the political clash over the US's debt limit and the threat of a government shutdown were all likely to harm the economy. "A government shutdown and failure to raise the debt limit could have very serious consequences for financial markets and the economy," he said.

The FOMC said fiscal policy was "restraining economic growth" and expressed concern about rising mortgage rates and the still high unemployment rate. Bernanke said the FOMC's ability to mitigate the impact of a debt ceiling crisis was "very limited".

Bernanke has linked any tapering of the QE policy to a sustained decline in the unemployment rate. US unemployment dipped to 7.3% last month, down from 8.1% a year ago. But the pace of job recovery remains sluggish and the latest drop was driven in part by people deciding to leave the workforce. The labour force participation rate slumped to 63.2%, its worst reading in 35 years.

Only one member of the FOMC, Esther George, chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, voted against the decision not to cut back on QE. She has been a persistent critic of the scheme. According to the Fed, George "was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations".

US stock markets soared to record highs shortly after its release. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 set new records after the news. The Dow closed up over 147 points at 15676.94, the 31st time this year it has set a new record. Oil and gold prices also rose. The yields for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note sunk and the dollar slumped to a seven month low against the euro.

President Barack Obama is now assessing potential successors and Bernanke's second term ends in January. On Sunday former Treasury secretary Larry Summers withdrew from the race leaving vice-chairman Janet Yellen seen as most likely to succeed to the post. Bernanke declined to comment on the succession. "I'd prefer not to talk about my plans at this point," he said.

The Fed's move comes as the US faces a potentially disastrous row over increasing its borrowing limits. In 2011 a standoff in Congress over the debt ceiling led to a historic downgrade of US debt and panic on the financial markets.

Obama accused Republicans of trying to "extort" him Tuesday by holding up negotiations unless he is prepared to amend or scarp his landmark healthcare reforms, the Affordable Care Act. Republican House speaker John Boehner hit back Wednesday calling Obamacare "a train wreck", as other party leaders set out further terms and conditions for raising the limit. The two sides are now at an impasse just days before the 30 September deadline to pass a government funding bill.

The government reached its $16.7tn debt limit in May and has been employing emergency measures to manage its cash, such as suspending investments in pension funds for federal workers, to stay below the line. But Treasury secretary Jack Lew has warned that the government will run out of room to manoeuvre in October and will be unable to meet its obligations.

On Tuesday Lew warned Congress again that a prolonged argument over the debt limit could do lead the US to default on its debts and irrevocably damage to the economy. "We cannot afford for Congress to gamble with the full faith and credit of the United States," Lew told the Economic Club of Washington.

A default would likely cause turmoil on world stock markets and a sharp rise in interest rates. Lew repeated a warning he made last month that the Treasury would soon be left with only around $50bn in cash on hand. The Treasury pays investors about $100bn to investors every Thursday that investors immediately lend back to the government, a process known as rolling over the debt.

"If US bondholders decided that they wanted to be repaid rather than continuing to roll over their investments, we could unexpectedly dissipate our entire cash balance," Lew said.

Default could come soon after that and would likely rock Wall Street and lead to a sharp rise in interest rates.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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US economy expands at stronger rate in second quarter, figures show

Rate of GDP growth more than double the pace clocked in prior three months and stronger than the 2.2% economists forecast

The US economy expanded at a stronger rate in the second quarter than previously estimated, according to figures released on Thursday.

After a boost to figures for exports and business investments, the Commerce Department revised its measure of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, to an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of 1.7% reported last month.

The rate of growth was more than double the pace clocked in the prior three months and stronger than the 2.2% that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.

US stock markets reacted positively to the news, which was released as the Labor Department reported another slide in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 for the week ending 24 August, the Labor Department said.

The report comes as the Federal Reserve appears close to cutting back on its $85bn a month bond-buying stimulus programme, known as quantitative easing. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated that the programme could be scaled back as early as later this year but has as yet not specified a date.

Bernanke has tied a cut in QE to the unemployment rate. Next Friday the US releases its monthly tally of employment figures, the non-farm payroll report. The continued fall in initial claims helped push the unemployment rate to 7.4% last month, its lowest level since late 2008.

However, economists warned that problems remained in the US economy and the revision in GDP also highlighted some of those weaknesses. Consumer spending remained unchanged in the quarter and state and local government spending fell in the quarter as compared to being up in the initial estimate.

Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services, said the rise was good news. "But it's still a 1.6% rise year over year, and that's soft. We are still down 2m jobs and we are seeing significant drag from tax increases and spending cuts."

Faucher said growth should pick up in the second half of 2013 and into 2014. "Consumers are adjusting to higher taxes. Business investment will continue to improve as profits are at a record high and borrowing costs are still very low, despite the recent increase in rates," he said.

Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist with broker BTIG said: "With the revisions, our original estimate calling for 1.5% growth in the first half was a bit under what has actually occurred. That's a positive but of course what matters now is not what has happened but what will happen. In that regard, the consensus still expects roughly 2.5% growth in the second half but that may prove to be too optimistic."

The GDP figures come amid a looming clash in Washington over the "debt ceiling" – the limit set by Congress on the US's ability to borrow. Treasury secretary Jack Lew warned earlier this week that if Congress fails to act soon, the US would hit its debt limit by mid-October.

Failure to reach a new agreement would risk "irreparable harm" to the US economy and leave the government struggling to make the 80m payments a month it sends out, including military salaries and social security cheques, he said.

Faucher said failure to raise the debt ceiling would be "disastrous – worse than a government shutdown." But he said ultimately he expected Congress would act to see off the crisis.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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US to relax quantitative easing but emerging markets grow tense

As the US Federal Reserve tapers QE and interest rates rise, there are reasons not to fear a repeat of the Asian crisis

Brazil last week became the latest country to take emergency action to shore up its currency as anxious investors piled out of emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Turkey: there was more than a whiff of panic in the air as policymakers tried to reassure financial markets they remain a good bet.

The Brazilian real has lost 20% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year, the rupee is down 15% and the Turkish lira down 10%. The situation has alarming echoes of the catastrophic Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Back then, Thailand became the first of the fast-growing "Asian tigers" forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as foreign investors lost heart and left and its currency plunged, sparking a chain reaction that spread across much of the continent.

This time the looming crisis has been caused by a change of heart by the Federal Reserve, thousands of miles away in Washington. In 1997, it was Alan Greenspan's decision to push up US interest rates that sparked investors to pull their cash out of riskier markets to take advantage of better returns back home. This time, it's the stated intention of Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed's board of governors, to start"tapering" its unprecedented $85bn a month programme of quantitative easing (QE), perhaps as soon as next month.

Under QE, the Federal Reserve hoovers up assets, mainly US government bonds or US treasury notes in a bid to push up their prices, which helps to reduce interest rates across the economy and create the conditions for recovery. But a side-effect of the policy is that banks and other investors use the cheap cash to go on a global shopping spree, looking for tempting investment prospects from Rio de Janeiro to Jakarta.

When the money is flooding in, inflating share prices and driving down the cost of government borrowing, it's easy for politicians in emerging economies to believe their own hype - political stability, the rising middle class, a large and growing workforce, huge untapped potential. But when the tide turns, they can suddenly become acutely vulnerable.

There are several reasons to be optimistic that we're not heading for a repeat of the Asian crisis. Many of the countries involved have piled up vast stockpiles of foreign currency reserves in the past 15 years in a deliberate bid to avoid being forced into the hands of the IMF. Few are reliant on the foreign-currency denominated loans that were a particular problem back then, and the Federal Reserve is acutely aware of the risk of sparking a new global financial crisis.

But while Central bankers have always known that the scale of the so-called "unconventional measures" that they unleashed on the world since the Great Crash of 1929 was unprecedented, they have no idea what the consequences will be as they start to unwind them. Just about every country that's been wooed by Wall Street over the past five years has good reason to be afraid.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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