Inflation slows again in November to four-year low

British inflation edged down in November to its lowest level in four years, giving the Bank of England plenty of breathing space to keep interest rates at a record low even as the economy picks up speed.

Consumer prices rose 2.1 percent on the year in November, the slowest increase since November 2009, as the impact of higher gas and electricity prices had yet to be felt, the Office for national Statistics said. Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected inflation to stay at 2.2 percent, its rate in October.

Compared with the previous month, the consumer price index in November was up 0.1 percent, the ONS said. Separately, house prices in Britain rose at their fastest pace in October in just over three years. Annual inflation has exceeded the Bank of England's 2 percent target every month since December 2009, steadily eating into the pay of British workers and making living standards a big political issue ahead of the 2015 elections.

Despite above-target inflation, the BoE's focus remains on nurturing an economy which is growing more quickly than most other industrialized countries but remains smaller than before the financial crisis.

The BoE has said it will only think about raising record-low interest rates once unemployment falls to 7 percent, unless inflation expectations threaten to get out of control.

Figures due on Wednesday are expected to show unemployment stayed at 7.6 percent in the three months to October.

The ONS said on Tuesday that the slowdown in November's inflation figure was partly due to fruit and vegetable prices as well as the later introduction this year of hikes in power tariffs.

An ONS official said last year's increases in utility prices affected inflation in November but were only expected to impact the CPI in December this year.

An underlying measure of inflation, which strips out increases in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 1.8 percent in November compared with the same month last year.

Data also released by the ONS on Tuesday showed that factory gate prices rose by 0.8 percent in annual terms, slower than economists' predictions of a 0.9 percent increase.

Some economists expect inflation pressure to grow in the coming months when the impact of the recently announced prices rises for household heating will be felt.

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UK manufacturing growth remains strong

The UK's manufacturing sector continued to see strong growth last month, according to a closely watched survey.

The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a level of 57.3 for December.

While this was down slightly from November's near three-year high of 58.1, it was still well above the 50 mark that indicates expansion.

Markit said that the latest figure suggested the manufacturing recovery remained "on track".

"UK manufacturing's strong upsurge continued at the end of 2013, with rates of growth in production and new orders still among the highest in the 22-year PMI survey history," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

"On its current track, the sector should achieve output growth of over 1% in the final quarter while filling around 10-15 thousand jobs, continuing its positive contributions to both the broader economic and labour market recoveries."

Recent official data and survey results have indicated that the UK economy is continuing to strengthen.

Last month, the latest unemployment figures showed that the jobless rate had fallen to 7.4%, the lowest rate since 2009.

Price pressures

Markit said that growth in manufacturing output and new orders remained "robust", helped by the strengthening UK economy and an increase in new export orders.

The research firm said manufacturers had seen increasing demand from Brazil, China, Ireland, Russia and the US.

The latest survey also showed signs of inflationary pressures building within the sector, with both average input costs and output charges rising at faster rates last month.

"With headline CPI inflation softening for a variety of reasons, this trend in manufacturing price pressures is not likely imminently to trouble the Bank of England," said David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas.

"But it does underline that inflation is not dead in the UK, and the economy is likely to sustain a materially higher inflation rate than its peers in 2014."

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UK unemployment rate at lowest since 2009

The UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, official figures show.

At 7.4%, this is the lowest rate since the February-to-April period in 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The number of people out of work fell by 99,000 to 2.39 million in the three months to October, the ONS said.

Prime Minister David Cameron told MPs the figures showed that "the plan is working".

Mr Cameron said: "There should not be one ounce of complacency because we have still got work to do to get our country back to work and everyone back in work means greater stability for them, greater ability to plan for their future, greater help for their families.

But the plan is working, let's stick at it, and get unemployment down even further."

But Labour leader Ed Miliband, while welcoming the news, said more people are working part-time because they could not get the hours they need.

This 7.4% rate compares with a figure of 7.6% for the three months to September, and is below the rate analysts had expected.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in November fell by 36,700 to 1.27 million.

In Northern Ireland the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 7.5%, while Scotland's figure was 7.1.%. England and Wales matched the national figure of 7.4%.

The North East of England had the highest unemployment rate, at 10.1%, while the lowest rate was 5.6% in the East of England.

The North East also had the highest claimant count rate at 6.1%, compared with the South East, which had the lowest, at 2.3%.

Earnings pressure

Average weekly earnings growth, including bonuses, picked up by 0.9% in the three months to October compared with a year earlier, the ONS said, a slight improvement on the three months to September.

Excluding bonuses, pay grew by 0.8%.

But this is still well below the level of inflation - currently running at 2.1% - meaning that people's earnings are still falling in real terms.

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The ONS data also showed that the number of people aged 16 and over who are in work was at a record high of 30.09 million, up 250,000 compared with the May-to-July period.

The percentage of the workforce in the public sector - 18.8% of those in employment, or 5.7 million people - fell to its lowest rate since the current data series began in 1999.

'Spectacular strength'

Economists welcomed the latest jobs figures.

David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas said the UK labour market was "showing spectacular strength".

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "These are very strong labour market figures, which back our recent forecast of increased growth in the fourth quarter of this year."

And Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "The official data are now confirming the upbeat signals from business surveys, which have shown the fastest rates of job creation since the late 1990s in recent months, as firms respond to a marked pick up in demand."

The Bank of England has said it will not consider raising interest rates from their record low of 0.5% until the unemployment rate falls to 7%.

But even then, governor Mark Carney has said an interest rate increase is not guaranteed.

The pound jumped against both the dollar and euro after the release of the jobs figures, as expectations rose that UK rates could rise sooner than forecast

The Bank's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unanimous in voting to keep interest rates on hold, minutes from its December meeting revealed, and to leave the central bank's £375bn programme of quantitative easing unchanged.

The MPC believes inflation could fall to its target level of 2% early in 2014, the minutes show, but it is concerned that sterling's recent 2% rise against other currencies could jeopardise the UK's economic recovery.

The UK grew by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2013, and the Bank is forecasting growth of 2.8% next year.

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David Cameron: Help to Buy triggers £1bn of new home loans

David Cameron claims that more than 6,000 people will move into their own property thanks to the Government's Help to Buy scheme, just three months after it was launched.

Nearly £1bn of home loans have been offered through the Government’s flagship Help to Buy scheme in the first three months since its introduction, the Prime Minister has claimed.

The controversial scheme, which has triggered warnings of a fresh housing bubble, has allowed more than 6,000 homebuyers to put in an offer on a property and apply for a mortgage, David Cameron said.

Those mortgages, once approved, will amount to almost £1bn of new lending, the Prime Minister said. So far 750 purchases have been completed since the initiative was rolled out in October.

“The New Year is often a time when people look to make those big life-changing decisions like moving home or taking that first step on the housing ladder,” Mr Cameron said.

“But too many people have found themselves frozen out of the market in recent years as a result of the size of the deposit required.”

Mr Cameron added: “That is why as part of our long-term economic plan we introduced the Help to Buy scheme, so hardworking people with sufficient earnings can get on, fulfil their aspirations and enjoy the security of owning their own home.”

However, Help to Buy, which offers Britons the chance to get on the property ladder with a deposit of as little as 5pc, has sparked warnings of a fresh housing bubble from economists and also Vince Cable, the Business Secretary.

Property experts have cautioned that initiatives such as Help to Buy are making it easier to purchase homes at a time when there is a shortage of new property coming on to the market.

Bodies such as the International Monetary Fund have warned the UK needs to be “vigilant” to the risks of another housing bubble and suggested the Government may need to consider other measures such as easing planning constraints to boost house building.

Downing Street insisted today that housebuilding is now growing at its fastest rate since 2008 and Help to Buy encourages “responsible lending”.

People wanting to buy a house through the scheme are, on average, seeking to buy properties worth £160,000 – below the UK’s average house price of £247,000.

Applicants face average monthly repayments of around £900 on an income of around £45,000, Downing Street said.

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UK could be Europe's 'largest' economy by 2030

The UK will be in a position to overtake Germany as Europe's largest economy, according to the think tank the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR).

The CEBR predicts that Germany will lose its current top spot in Europe by 2030.

It cites the UK's population growth as an aid to economic acceleration.

The report echoes the recent confidence of other business groups such as the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

Earlier this month, the BCC said that the UK economy would surpass its pre-recession peak in 2014.

In its annual World Economic League Table, where it ranks the ups and downs of global economies, and forecasts their future position, the CEBR said in addition that China will overtake the US in 2028, which is later than some analysts have suggested.

The UK will overall perform second best of all advanced economies, the CEBR said.

Yet, this performance will still lag behind growth in emerging countries such India and Brazil.

The CEBR in its report added that in addition to the UK's population growth boosting economic expansion, that "lesser dependence on other European economies" would also aid progress, as well as "relatively low taxes by European standards."

However, as far as Germany, the group said that should the euro "break up", that "Germany's outlook would be much better."

As for France, the CEBR said it will be one of the "worst performing" of the Western economies, and will be overtaken by the UK by 2018. This is because of slow growth due to "high taxation" in addition to the general issues of eurozone economies.

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Britons less inclined to pay down mortgage debt

Britons were less inclined to use savings to pay down mortgage debt in the third quarter, data showed on Monday, adding to signs of improving consumer confidence as house prices rise and the job market recovers.Homeowners put 10.4 billion pounds of equity into their homes in the quarter, the Bank of England figures showed - more than two billion pounds less than in the previous quarter and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009.Britons have paid down their mortgages on a net basis for the past four years, reversing the trend towards higher debt levels that dominated from late 1999 until the financial crisis.

Borrowing against the rising value of property was a key driver of the consumer boom of the last decade, and while the Bank of England may welcome a return of that "feelgood" factor, it will be wary of a recovery that is heavily reliant on household spending and cheap credit.

Data earlier this month showed households saved just 5.4 percent of their disposable income in the third quarter, down from 6.2 percent in the second. Household spending, meanwhile, rose an annual 2.5 percent, faster than growth in the economy overall.

Keeping property price gains in check without crimping growth in the rest of the economy is shaping up to be the biggest challenge facing the central bank in 2014.

While inflation in the broader economy has come within a whisker of the BoE's 2 percent target, house prices are rising six times as fast in the capital and almost four times as fast nationwide.

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UK government could sell off Lloyds bank stake in 2014 - Telegraph

 The British government could sell off all of its 18.4 billion pound stake in the Lloyds banking group in 2014, the Daily Telegraph reported, citing unnamed sources.

The newspaper reported that the entire government holding could be sold off in the next 12 months in a combination of retail and institutional offerings.

"Post-results is when a further institutional offering would make most sense. After that, the thinking is an autumn sale, combining an institutional and a retail segment, is a realistic prospect," a source was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

The UK government has already sold off 6 percent of its stake in the partly nationalised bank, raising over 3.2 billion pounds in September this year.

The government currently holds around 33 percent of the bank, five years after Lloyds and rival Royal Bank of Scotland were bailed out by the government at the height of the credit crunch.

Shares in Lloyds closed at 78.84 pence on the London Stock Exchange on Friday, valuing the group at 56.5 billion pounds.

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