Thursday 16 January 2014

Bank of England holds cards close to chest on guidance options

 The Bank of England kept investors guessing on Thursday as to whether it might be considering a change to its pledge to keep interest rates on hold as Britain's economic recovery picks up.
It also did not take the unusual step - but one which some investors had considered possible - of issuing a statement to address the speed at which Britain's unemployment rate is falling towards its threshold for considering a rate hike.

"No guidance on guidance yet," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note to clients. He said details of discussions among the BoE's policymakers on their options for changing guidance were likely to appear when minutes of this week's meeting are published on January 22.
Britain moved from being a laggard to a leader in terms of growth among the world's biggest economies last year.
Its economy is expanding by more than 3 percent in annualised terms although there are concerns the recovery could prove unsustainable, especially as wage growth remains weak.
The BoE said in August it will not think about raising rates until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Since then unemployment has come down much faster than the Bank expected, raising questions about how long it can hold off on raising rates.
But inflation has also fallen to within a whisker of its 2 percent target, reducing the pressure on the BoE.
After its two-day meeting, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates at 0.5 percent, as expected by all the economists who took part in a Reuters poll.
It also left its bond-buying programme unchanged at 375 billion pounds.
The turnaround in Britain's economy contrasts with the situation in the euro zone, its main trading partner, where the European Central Bank is expected to use a news conference on Thursday to remind investors it could ease policy further.
The pace of Britain's recovery has helped the pound to strengthen by 5 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the dollar since the middle of last year.
Sterling strengthened briefly against the dollar after the MPC's announcement of no change in policy. British government bond prices rose slightly.
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