Thursday 2 January 2014

Inflation slows again in November to four-year low

British inflation edged down in November to its lowest level in four years, giving the Bank of England plenty of breathing space to keep interest rates at a record low even as the economy picks up speed.
Consumer prices rose 2.1 percent on the year in November, the slowest increase since November 2009, as the impact of higher gas and electricity prices had yet to be felt, the Office for national Statistics said. Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected inflation to stay at 2.2 percent, its rate in October.
Compared with the previous month, the consumer price index in November was up 0.1 percent, the ONS said. Separately, house prices in Britain rose at their fastest pace in October in just over three years. Annual inflation has exceeded the Bank of England's 2 percent target every month since December 2009, steadily eating into the pay of British workers and making living standards a big political issue ahead of the 2015 elections.
Despite above-target inflation, the BoE's focus remains on nurturing an economy which is growing more quickly than most other industrialized countries but remains smaller than before the financial crisis.
The BoE has said it will only think about raising record-low interest rates once unemployment falls to 7 percent, unless inflation expectations threaten to get out of control.
Figures due on Wednesday are expected to show unemployment stayed at 7.6 percent in the three months to October.
The ONS said on Tuesday that the slowdown in November's inflation figure was partly due to fruit and vegetable prices as well as the later introduction this year of hikes in power tariffs.
An ONS official said last year's increases in utility prices affected inflation in November but were only expected to impact the CPI in December this year.
An underlying measure of inflation, which strips out increases in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 1.8 percent in November compared with the same month last year.
Data also released by the ONS on Tuesday showed that factory gate prices rose by 0.8 percent in annual terms, slower than economists' predictions of a 0.9 percent increase.
Some economists expect inflation pressure to grow in the coming months when the impact of the recently announced prices rises for household heating will be felt.
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UK manufacturing growth remains strong

The UK's manufacturing sector continued to see strong growth last month, according to a closely watched survey.
The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a level of 57.3 for December.
While this was down slightly from November's near three-year high of 58.1, it was still well above the 50 mark that indicates expansion.
Markit said that the latest figure suggested the manufacturing recovery remained "on track".
"UK manufacturing's strong upsurge continued at the end of 2013, with rates of growth in production and new orders still among the highest in the 22-year PMI survey history," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.
"On its current track, the sector should achieve output growth of over 1% in the final quarter while filling around 10-15 thousand jobs, continuing its positive contributions to both the broader economic and labour market recoveries."
Recent official data and survey results have indicated that the UK economy is continuing to strengthen.
Last month, the latest unemployment figures showed that the jobless rate had fallen to 7.4%, the lowest rate since 2009.
Price pressures
Markit said that growth in manufacturing output and new orders remained "robust", helped by the strengthening UK economy and an increase in new export orders.
The research firm said manufacturers had seen increasing demand from Brazil, China, Ireland, Russia and the US.
The latest survey also showed signs of inflationary pressures building within the sector, with both average input costs and output charges rising at faster rates last month.
"With headline CPI inflation softening for a variety of reasons, this trend in manufacturing price pressures is not likely imminently to trouble the Bank of England," said David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas.
"But it does underline that inflation is not dead in the UK, and the economy is likely to sustain a materially higher inflation rate than its peers in 2014."
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