Tuesday 10 September 2013

Soaring house prices spread across UK as surveyors warn of another bubble

Poll shows fastest rise since late 2006 peak, with Rics saying Osborne schemes risk pushing prices to unaffordable levels
House prices are rising at their fastest pace for almost seven years, according to the latest survey to point to a property market on the rise.
Rising prices and growing demand have also driven a jump in the number of people putting their homes on the market, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).
Its survey echoed a report from Britain's largest mortgage lender, Halifax, last week that house prices were 5.4% higher than in the summer of 2012. Estate agents polled by Rics indicated the fastest rise in prices since their peak in late 2006 as government schemes such as Funding for Lending continued to improve access to mortgages.
Rics warned, however, of the risk of prices soaring to unaffordable levels, echoing commentators who have warned that George Osborne's property market schemes could spark another house price bubble.
The group said that although the market conditions were prompting more people to put their home on the market, demand still outstripped supply.
"During August, the number of would-be buyers increased yet again as increasingly accessible finance allowed more people to enter the market," the Rics report said.
Peter Bolton King, the Rics global residential director, added: "It's not surprising that more and more people are looking to sell their homes. Buyers are out there and prices are on the up so if you're looking to move it's a good time to do so. What we don't wish to see, however, is prices rise to such an extent that they become unaffordable.
"For the market to work properly, it's vital that property is both accessible and affordable, and we'll be monitoring the situation very carefully as the housing sector continues to recover."
Following government moves to improve access to mortgages, there have been reports of first-time buyers flocking into the housing market.
LSL Property Services, which owns estate agencies including Your Move, suggested last week that there were more than 26,000 first-time buyer transactions in July – an increase of 45% on the same month in 2012.
The Rics report said the Funding for Lending scheme and Help to Buy "appear to be part of the reason for the pick-up in activity".
The report's headline prices balance stood at 40, based on the proportion of respondents reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall. That was the highest since November 2006 and compared with 36 a month earlier.
Rics said each region across the country saw supply increase in August as the recovery continued to spread from south-east England to other areas. The South West and the North East, in particular, saw the number of new homes coming onto the market rise significantly.
Rics added: "It seems that recent price rises are going to continue unabated."
The estate agents surveyed expect prices across Britain, on average, to increase by 2.2% over the coming year and by 4.4% in each of the next five years. At the start of this year, those respective figures were 0.6% and 3.4%.
The survey of 348 agents will intensify fears of unsustainable rises that will leave another generation saddled with huge debts.
Experts' concerns about another bubble centre on the Help to Buy scheme, which was introduced in April and provides equity loans for first-time buyers of up to 20% towards the cost of new-build properties worth up to £600,000.
The International Monetary Fund and others have criticised the scheme, which will be expanded in January to make the loans available to all buyers and all types of property up to the £600,000 limit.
Some of the estate agents surveyed by Rics predicted a boom as a result of the government schemes; others were more cautious about their impact.
"The second stage of the government's Help to Buy scheme in January 2014 could create a bubble," said Michael Brooker, an agent in Crowborough, East Sussex.
Others were less confident the price rises would last.
Julian Dyer in the Welsh town of Abergavenny, said: "The market has definitely perked up over the last 6 months, however the market seems very fragile, and I am not convinced that the upturn is sustainable. The government initiative to help builders does not seem to have worked in this area."
Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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UK GDP growth limited to 1% in longer term, economists warn

IEA paper predicts a post-crisis era of sluggish growth, tempering recent good economic news stories
Britain's economic growth will be limited to just 1% in the longer term as higher government spending, dwindling North Sea oil stocks and an ageing population all take their toll on the country's potential output, a group of economists has warned.
Tempering the recent spate of upbeat news on the UK and chancellorGeorge Osborne's assertion that the economy has "turned a corner", a new paper predicts a post-crisis era of sluggish growth.
The long-term, sustainable growth rate in the UK may be only 1%, compared with the 2.5% that the Treasury thought standard from the 1980s to the 2000s, according to a discussion paper for free-market thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA). "Until 2008 the UK had got used to our economy doubling in size every 25 years: unless action is taken it will now only double in size every 70 years," says the group of economists, which includes former Treasury adviser and UK Independence Party candidate Tim Congdon, and Andrew Lilico, the managing director of Europe Economics, an economics consultancy.
They highlight the weakest recovery in "industrial history" and blame a lack of growth for the government's deficit reduction plan being off target.
Commenting on the analysis, the IEA's editorial director, Philip Booth, said: "People shouldn't get too excited about better growth figures and recent forecasts from groups such as the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]. We still have a long way to go before we recover the loss of output from the 2008 crash. Furthermore, the medium-term prospects for growth do not look healthy unless the government determinedly reduces government spending and regulation."
Following a string of positive indicators on the fledgling UK recovery, the OECD has lifted its forecast for the country's economic growth in 2013. The upgrade to projected growth of 1.5% this year came after stronger-than-expected growth of 0.7% in the second quarter, falling unemployment, and survey evidence suggesting the strongest growth in manufacturing output for almost two decades.
But the economists writing in the IEA paper painted a gloomier current economic picture, noting that five years on from the start of the financial crisis in 2008, GDP is still 3% below its peak. "That is unprecedented in 170 years of shocks that have hit the UK economy since industrialisation," sais the paper, "Will flat-lining become normal?"
Predicting sluggish growth rates, the IEA authors blame higher government spending and tax as a proportion of GDP, more regulation of energy and financial services, the depletion of North Sea oil, higher debt levels for government, business and households relative to GDP. They also note demographic pressures from an ageing population as well as the effects of "low-productivity immigrant workers being added to the working population", though the IEA stressed this was an analysis of the impact of much of the UK's immigrant labour being relatively unskilled, not an argument against immigration.
The paper advocates "bold" reforms if the UK wants to get back to sustainable growth rates of around 2% or more over the long run, including: the rolling back of government activity and influence; the regeneration of affordable credit channels to unencumbered households and businesses; and the implementation of radical supply-side measures.
Booth added: "Britain's growth problem is a productivity problem and not a problem caused by insufficient government borrowing. The government should take note. The solutions lie in its hands."
The comments from the free-market thinktank contrast with remarks from the leader of the UK's trade union movement, Frances O'Grady, on Monday. In her first speech to the annual congress as TUC general secretary, O'Grady called for the implementation of a political action plan to stimulate growth, paid for by taxing the rich, whose wealth had increased dramatically in the past few years.
Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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IT glitch hits Lloyds and TSB on morning of bank split

TSB spokeswoman blames 'unexpected volumes of traffic' for temporary crash as the promise of a seamless transition fails to materialise
TSB was hit by teething problems on its launch morning as technical issues caused the bank's website to crash, meaning customers were unable to access their accounts online.
A surge of traffic to the website and those of other banks in the Lloyds Group caused the problems, undermining the promise of the chief executive, António Horta-Osório, of a "seamless" transition as TSB was relaunched.
Customers at Lloyds and Halifax were also affected by the glitch, which left some unable to even load the websites and others unable to log in. Only the Bank of Scotland website was unaffected.

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A spokesperson for the group said: "We are experiencing an issue with our internet banking service this morning, which has affected the ability of some customers to log on successfully.
"We are working to resolve this as quickly as we can and we apologise to customers for the inconvenience this will have caused. Our branches, telephone banking and cashpoint facilities have not been affected in any way."
On Saturday night the websites were closed as final technical work was done ahead of Monday's official return to the high street of the TSB brand, which came with the opening of the first rebranded stores. Other branches will follow in the first three days of the week.
Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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