Royal Mail shares: hedge fund takes biggest private stake

TCI's 5.8% slice of Royal Mail shares fuels criticism of Vince Cable over 'fire sale' as Labour says small investors let down

A hedge fund known for its aggressive investment strategy has become the largest private shareholder in Royal Mail, re-igniting anger overVince Cable's controversial privatisation of the postal service.

The Children's Investment Fund owns a 5.8% stake in the 500-year-old postal service, making it the largest shareholder behind the government, which has a 38% stake. TCI is controlled by publicity-shy Chris Hohn, who pressed for the sale of ABN Amro, which ended in the Dutch bank's disastrous takeover by the Royal Bank of Scotland, and has been dubbed a "locust" in Germany for its investment style.

TCI's stake in Royal Mail came to light under stock market rules obliging investors to report holdings greater than 5%, and was seized on by government critics who argue that the business secretary failed small investors by selling the shares off to "big money" in the City and failing to live up to his promise to sell them to long-term investors.

TCI revealed that it owns 58.1m shares, on a day when the shares rose to 499p, slightly down on last week but still 50% higher than the 330p the shares were sold at.

Hohn, the Surrey-born chief executive of TCI, is also among the UK's most generous philanthropists and first came to prominence in 2005 after he ousted the chief executive of Deutsche Börse, Werner Seifert, ending his bid to take over the London Stock Exchange. Seifert retaliated by branding TCI partners and its US equivalents "locusts".

The bulk of the controversial hedge fund's stake in Royal Mail is likely to have been bought on the stock market rather than directly from the government, but it may still raise hackles among trade unionists who recently voted for a nationwide 24-hour strike next month. It has also reignited criticism from Labour that Royal Mail was sold on the cheap.

Ian Murray, the shadow minister for trade and investment, argued that small investors had been failed by the government's "fire sale".

"We have seen small investors losing out while the vast majority of shares sold have gone to big-money investors in the City," he said. "Vince Cable claimed that the sale would prioritise long-term investors but serious questions will be asked on whether this is the case, not least given the huge volume of trades in Royal Mail shares which we have seen in the first days of trading, running into hundreds of millions."

He added: "This is on top of real concerns that taxpayers have been left short-changed to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds at a time when families across Britain are facing a cost of living crisis."

Cable told a committee of MPs earlier this month the government was in "a position to ensure that we do get the right kind of investor community". He said: "We are talking about pension funds and insurance companies that hold the savings of millions of people, and we have been very clear that that is the kind of relationship we want to have, that is long-termism."

A spokesman at the business department referred to these comments and said the government was not disappointed with a hedge fund owner, adding: "It is not a matter for us, it is a matter for the company."

TCI and Royal Mail declined to comment.

Hedge funds have been among the city institutions and retail investors scrambling for a slice of Royal Mail, in part because they believe modernisation of the postal service could happen faster than planned.

David Buik, a market commentator at Panmure Gordon, described Hohn as an extremely shrewd businessman. "My guess is that he thinks it is a probably a very good company. I suspect he thinks it is undervalued – I suspect he has bought his stake in it for that reason." Neither will it have escaped his attention that Royal Mail is a plum takeover target, Buik added.

"If things don't work out on an independent basis, it would look very cosy in the portfolio of UPS or Deutsche Post."

TCI has grown into one of the world's largest hedge funds since its creation in 2003, and currently has $11bn in assets under management.

In recent months it has been buying into companies with corporate governance concerns, such as Japan Tobacco and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp in the wake of the phone hacking scandal. Since News Corp was split, TCI now owns a stake in Twentieth Century Fox.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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Royal Mail profits expected to result in 'halo effect' in runup to Christmas

Market research firm Verdict says share profits will contribute to increased spending as shoppers feel that 'things are improving'

Windfall profits collected by hundreds of thousands of people on theirRoyal Mail shares are expected to lead to an extra spending splurge in the runup to Christmas.

The market research firm Verdict said profits on Royal Mail shares together with compensation payments from mis-sold payment protection insurance would lead to a "halo effect" – making consumers think that "at last things are getting better".

Maureen Hinton, Verdict's director of research, said shoppers were expected to spend an extra £1.9bn on Christmas compared with last year. Spending in the last three months of the year is expected to come in at £88.4bn, compared to £86.5bn in the same period last year.

The forecast 2.2% rise in spending would be the strongest since the recession began.

Verdict predicted that online sales would jump 12% to £11.6bn, with Amazon named as the biggest beneficiary.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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Royal Mail IPO: ministers to increase amount of public shares

Government is making plans to ensure 'smaller investors get their share', and do not lose out to banks and hedge funds

The government will bow to a mounting outcry and ensure the public do not lose out to banks, hedge funds and other financial speculators in the £3bn selloff of Royal Mail shares.

The Guardian understands that ministers are making plans to increase amount of Royal Mail shares available to the public at the expense of those set aside for banks, following overwhelming demand in the biggest privatisation since the sale of the railways in the 1990s.

Michael Fallon, the business minister in charge of the flotation, said he would do all he could to ensure "smaller investors get their fair share", ahead of Tuesday's midnight deadline to buy stock.

Fallon had promised that about 30% of the shares on offer would be reserved for the public but is now understood to be planning to increase this proportion available for small investors and cut back on the amount going to banks if public demand massively exceeds supply.

He said: "No decisions have been taken on allocation but I'm committed to making sure smaller investors get their fair share."

The government has been under pressure to ensure the public do not lose out to banks and hedge funds, which are hoping to make instant profits from the sale of the 500-year-old postal service.

Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said: "This is turning into a dream and a bonanza for City speculators and hedge funds, meanwhile the taxpayer … is getting massively shortchanged."

Financial institutions have ordered several times the number of shares available to them, amid reports that the government hugely undervalued the company, and the shares could soar by more than 30% on their first day's trading on Friday.

Stockbrokers have also reported unprecedented public demand for the shares, to be priced at between £3-3.30 each, with some staying open all weekend and until midnight Tuesday when applications close.

Alastair McCaig, market strategist at IG Index, said public demand for Royal Mail's shares has been "even stronger than we saw in Facebook".

IG said excitement over the flotation had sparked a frenzy in the pre-trading "grey market", with investors betting the shares will rise to £4 on Friday – 70p more than the maximum the government has allowed itself to sell them for.

If they do reach £4, the government will have lost out on an extra £400m it could have made if it priced the shares at £4, rather than £3.30.

Panmure Gordon analyst Gert Zonneveld – the only analyst to have published research on the shares – has said he is convinced the government undervalued Royal Mail by more than £1bn. Zonneveld said the shares should have been sold between £3.70 and £4.50, considerably higher than the government's initial range.

Vince Cable, the business secretary, on Monday hit back at Umunna for accusing the government of undervaluing the company and selling it on the cheap.

"It is irresponsible to imply that a share offering looks significantly undervalued," he wrote in a letter.. "I think you should consider the risk that you may be influencing the decisions of retail investors. Equity investment always involves risk, particularly when the company in question is new to the market. In the light of this it is dangerous to imply that there is an easy bargain to be made.

"Panmure Gordon is only one voice and their report notes both near term risks and opportunities. We are alert to value for money criticism and have learnt from the mistakes of previous governments' asset sales. QinetiQ is one key example under the last government."

In 2007, the National Audit Office criticised the float of defence company QinetiQ saying taxpayers lost out to the tune of tens of millions of pounds.

The government's valuation of Royal Mail is based on advice from investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS after £21.7m in fees was paid to advisers. Applications for shares close at 11.59pm on Tuesday. The minimum public application is £750. If the public apply for more shares than those available they will "scaled back", meaning applicants will not be able to buy all the shares they have applied for. Big applications will be scaled back at a greater rate than small applications.

Up to 62% of the company will be listed on the stock market on Friday. A further 10% will be given to Royal Mail's 150,000 employees.

The final price the shares sell at will not be decided until the company floats on the stock market on Friday.

Trading places

One of the accusations levelled at the Thatcher and Major governments was that they sold off Britain's nationalised industries too cheaply. A look at how the shares fared on their first day of trading lends weight to this argument, although long-term returns give a clearer picture of a company's value.

British Telecom was the Thatcher government's first big privatisation. Its shares jumped 35% on the first day of trading in 1984, but when two later tranches were offered the price rose only 5% each time. British Gas followed in 1986, helped by its "Tell Sid" campaign. Its shares rose 10% on the first day. Powergen and National Power both soared by about 22% on their first trading days but when further batches of shares were sold later the price rose less than 5% in both cases.

In 1987, British Airways' shares leapt by two thirds on their first day of trading. But later that year BP's privatisation was launched at the time of Black Monday when shares plunged in New York and London on 19 October. Underwriters were left holding shares priced at 330p that were trading at 262p.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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