Tesco's grim trading update will prompt questions about chief's strategy

Tesco is expected to unveil another grim trading update next week which is likely to prompt new questions about whether the turnaround strategy of chief executive Phil Clarke is working.

A flurry of City analyst research notes out yesterday predicted disappointing sales data when the UK's biggest grocer reveals its third quarter sales update. Barclays, Shore Capital and Deutsche Bank all expect no progress in the grocer's crucial UK market - which still accounts for 70% of group profits - after flat sales at the time of the last update.

Retail analyst James Collins at Deutsche Bank, Tesco's joint house broker, is forecasting a 1.5% decline in the most recent like-for-like UK sales.

He said: "We expect third-quarter like-for-like trends to have deteriorated in most markets versus the second quarter, most notably in the UK, Thailand, Ireland and Korea."

Barclays' James Anstead is predicting a 1.8% drop. He said: "It seems unlikely that Tesco's third quarter trading statement will be the turning point that the market is looking for."

Shore Capital's Clive Black is expecting a sales decline of 1-2%.

Tesco was one of the biggest FTSE-100 fallers. The shares lost more than 2.5% to close at 345p. Two years ago they were changing hands at 405p. JP Morgan yesterday cut its price target from 335p to 315p, Deutsche Bank reduced its target from 405p to 386p.

Tesco's main problems are in the UK, where it is losing business to upmarket rivals like Waitrose and the hard discounters, especially Aldi and Lidl. It is also struggling to catch up with a move away from big weekly shopping trips to out-of-town hypermarkets and a shift to online shopping.

Last week research group Kantar reported that all four of the big UKsupermarkets were losing market share, for the first time in more than a decade.

Clarke is 18 months into a £1bn transformation plan for Tesco's UK stores, which ranges from employing more store staff to revamping tired hypermarkets, improving the food on the shelves and trying to make faster headway in online shopping.

In an interview with the Sunday Times last weekend, Tesco's chairman Sir Richard Broadbent admitted the grocer had become too inward-looking over recent years and "had lost touch with the outside world". He said that a turnaround would not be rapid and that innovation - such as Tesco's new Hudl tablet computer - was key to the retailer's revival.

But at Tesco's last financial results it became clear that the grocer also has substantial problems overseas. Clarke, who led the international business before he took over the top job, reported declining like-for-like sales in every one of its international markets, which spread from Turkey to Thailand. Profits in Europe were down more than 70%.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk
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