We must invest in high-speed rail or new motorways, warns HS2 chairman

Outgoing HS2 chair Douglas Oakervee says poor capacity and infrastructure calls for investment over entire transport system

Britain will have to choose between building a high-speed rail line or a new motorway network, the outgoing chairman of HS2 has warned, as the government struggles to hold together a political consensus over the £42.6bn project.

Douglas Oakervee said that the problem of scant capacity and creaking infrastructure was not just one affecting railways but the entire national transport system.

In the annual George Bradshaw address, Oakervee told an audience at the Institution of Civil Engineers on Tuesday that their predecessors "would be turning in their graves if they knew how much we had allowed their infrastructure to decay".

Oakervee, one of the transport industry's most respected and long-serving figures, compared the current capacity crunch with the choices that faced governments in the 1950s when the go-ahead was given to build motorways across Britain.

"We have once again reached a similar point in the cycle of transport planning with a choice to be made. Either we build another similar-sized network of roads or we invest in HS2."

He added: "The stark truth is that our railway network has been allowed to decay for more than 60 years, I would argue that we are already late in acting. In 2010 we published demand forecasts for HS2. Since then the actual growth we have experienced is already outstripping the predicted demand for HS2."

Oakervee warned: "It is clear that all the main transport arteries both road and rail are rapidly becoming congested and are already constraining our ability to grow the economy to allow us to maintain our position in world trade and commerce.

"If we do not wish our standards of living to deteriorate and our world status eroded it is absolutely essential that we develop all our transport arteries and links as quickly as possible."

Oakervee said that without HS2 the key rail routes connecting London, the Midlands and the north would be overwhelmed. He said that on morning peak trains on the West Coast main line, there were already 115 passengers for every 100 seats on arrival in London and Birmingham, and that forecasts pointed to 200 passengers for every 100 seats by 2030 without additional capacity.

He added: "We must stop prevaricating over the rights and wrongs of each individual project and develop an integrated transport and infrastructure plan."

Oakervee, whose previous roles have included overseeing the passage of parliamentary legislation for the Crossrail line currently under construction in London, is stepping down as chairman of HS2 at the end of the year to be replaced by Network Rail chief executive David Higgins.

The first line linking London and Birmingham is due to open in 2026. The full £42.6bn network linking those cities with Manchester and Leeds is scheduled for completion by 2033.

Opposition to the scheme has intensified in recent months with a succession of studies and reports questioning the cost and value for money, especially after the government announced in June that the overall budget, including contingencies, had risen by almost £10bn. The economic case published by the Department for Transport has been revised downwards on several occasions.

Oakervee suggested that trying to calculate exact figures for its eventual value was futile. "Rooms full of economists are vying with each other to gain kudos for their competing models and analysis while we are battling with public opinion to nail a number to the basic fact that investing in HS2 will deliver good, or even very good economic benefits and the jobs the Midlands and north desperately need."

One supportive review of HS2 came on Monday from the Independent Transport Commission, which said that it would provide a catalyst for better connectivity and growth in the UK's regions if it was planned correctly. The study said that a new high-speed rail line would cost not much more than 10% more than a conventional rail line.

Article Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk

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